What are the stakes if Trump decertifies the Iran nuclear deal?
Sources tell CBS News President Trump is leaning toward decertifying the Iran nuclear deal. The president may force the issue by saying Iran is not complying with the agreement.
One global political risk expert broke down what would be at stake if Mr. Trump decides to pull out of the agreement, which was reached in 2015 between the U.S., Iran and other world powers.
"The stakes are, if other countries join us, then the Iranians are off to the races in terms of nuclear capabilities and they'd be quite quick about it," Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer said Thursday on "CBS This Morning." "But I think much more likely would be that all of the others that are involved in the negotiations and the settlement, including our allies in Europe -- France, the U.K. -- would actually stick with the deal, and the Americans would be effectively out in the cold. And I will tell you that this week, the Saudis, the Israelis have been talking to the Trump administration saying, 'None of us like this deal -- don't pull out and be all by yourself."
Vice President Mike Pence indicated on "CBS This Morning" Thursday that Mr. Trump will reveal his decision soon about the Iran nuclear deal, but he would not say what it was. The president told reporters Wednesday he had made up his mind. Bremmer said the reason there might be a delay in announcing Mr. Trump's decision is because the administration is "working out what they call the modalities of that now."
"[Mr. Trump] personally wants out. He doesn't like the deal. He hated it when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson certified the last time around," Bremmer said. "And if you remember, Trump already said that the Iranians are not in compliance with the spirit of the deal and he said, frankly, they're probably not even in compliance with the actual deal. So Trump himself personally doesn't feel like he's certifying it. He's instructed his national security adviser and secretary of state to find a way to see if they can not recertify but not formally pull out of the deal so Congress would still kind of stick with it."
That way, "they can still say, we're pushing, we're pushing, but we're not blowing it up," he added.
As for the rising tensions and nuclear threat from North Korea, Bremmer said "the entire world" -- including Russia and China -- is trying to show they are upset with the regime escalating "all aspects of their nuclear programs." But while economic sanctions may not have an effect on North Korea ultimately stopping their nuclear program, Bremmer said the sanctions are having an impact on the Chinese "now actually cracking down on smuggling, border controls."
"I think that's a big deal. So you could say they're having an effect on China working with the United States. That's a positive," Bremmer said.