Trump and EU easing tariff tensions a "ceasefire," but pressure is still on
President Trump and the European Union appear to be backing away from a trade war. Mr. Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed Wednesday to work toward eliminating tariffs, trade barriers and subsidies between the two economic giants.
The EU said it could buy more products from the U.S., including soybeans and liquefied natural gas. They also agreed to resolve the dispute over steel and aluminum tariffs.
Mr. Trump later tweeted a picture embracing Juncker, writing the U.S. and EU "obviously ... love each other."
It was a sharp change in tone for Mr. Trump, who spent weeks attacking the group. Earlier this month, in an interview with "CBS Evening News" anchor Jeff Glor, Mr. Trump called the EU "a foe, what they do to us in trade."
Obviously the European Union, as represented by @JunckerEU and the United States, as represented by yours truly, love each other! pic.twitter.com/42ImacgCN0
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 25, 2018
"How wonderful to go from foe to l'amore so quickly," said Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president and CBS News senior global affairs contributor, calling the latest development between the U.S. and EU a "ceasefire."
Bremmer said, however, that "there never was a trade war."
"There were a couple of initial skirmishes back and forth. We have not taken our existing tariffs – the new ones, aluminum, steel – off of the Europeans, and we are continuing our investigation into the automotive tariffs. We're just putting a suspension on actually implementing them. So the pressure is still on, but the tone has obviously changed," he said.
Bremmer said we need to see if policies actually get implemented.
"It reminds me of what happened after the Singapore meeting between Kim Jong Un and Trump. It sounded great. There was a deal. There wasn't anything concrete in the deal. We no longer talked about fighting each other, but in reality, U.S. policy and North Korean policy hasn't actually changed that much. That's exactly what we're seeing right here," Bremmer said.
Bremmer said Mr. Trump has leverage and gets more from the Europeans in the short term than if he were just being "Mr. Nice Guy" – similar tactics he used with Brazilians, Argentinians and South Koreans.
"But the actual relationship between Trump and these European leaders is enormously damaged," Bremmer said. "And long term, that erodes the strength of these institutions and architecture, which will have an impact."
"Let's be clear: everything Trump has done in policy over his first year and a half has been made to try to get the American economy to be juiced in the short term. He's more than happy to blow out the budget, doesn't care about long-term deficits."
As for Mr. Trump's private meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month in Helsinki, Bremmer said policies related to Russia also did not change.
"The Americans didn't recognize Crimea as part of Russia. They haven't actually suspended military exercises in the Baltic states," Bremmer said.
"If you look at actual American policy toward Russia even after this extremely unusual Helsinki summit, the reality is: U.S. policy toward Russia is deeply broken, and it's probably unbalanced, getting a little bit worse. Not much to see here on policy," he added.