Next tropical weather threat is forming in the Caribbean. Will it move toward Florida's Gulf Coast?
The last day of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is the end of the month, but as we near that finish line, the Caribbean apparently has other thoughts in mind — forecasters say tropical system is brewing.
The National Hurricane Center said Thursday morning that Tropical Depression 19 had strengthened in the western Caribbean and is expected to become a tropical storm later in the day and keep strengthening, if it stays over water. If it reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Sara.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for parts of Honduras.
The Miami-based hurricane center said the storm is forecast "to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend" and strengthen somewhat over the next two days. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are forecast for parts of northern Honduras, with isolated areas getting as much as 30 inches through early next week.
"This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides" in the Central American nation, the hurricane center warned.
Hurricane hunters are flying into the area Thursday to investigate the strength and structure of the developing weather system.
With the low pressure system in place in the western Caribbean, conditions were favorable for the formation of a tropical system. Forecast models take in the current environmental factors along with historical data to compute "spaghetti plots" of where systems may track. Each model uses different computations, which explains how the forecast track is an output of the consensus from those models.
This system's strength is determined based on how much fuel it has — factors such as being in a favorable environment over warm waters, low wind shear, no intercepting fronts — and how long it remains in those favorable conditions. No matter its strength, the forecast models have it lingering in the western Caribbean through the weekend before turning to the north and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
After entering the Gulf, the consensus of the forecast models has it making a right-hand turn and heading toward Florida by late next week.
A lot can happen between now and next week and conditions can quickly change, but areas like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands need to brace for heavy rains in the next few days. Florida residents should continue to monitor the forecast as updates come in.