Hurricane Zeta forms in the Atlantic as it moves toward the Gulf Coast
The 2020 hurricane season continues to overachieve as Hurricane Zeta formed Monday as it heads toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The storm is taking a track similar to Hurricane Delta, striking near Cozumel, Mexico, and then heading towards the Northern Gulf Coast.
Zeta was located about 45 miles south-southeast of Cozumel with maximum winds of 80 mph, the National Hurricane Center said Monday night. It was moving northwest at 12 mph.
Forecasters predict Zeta will be a low-end hurricane, but it is not expected to be nearly as strong as Hurricane Delta just weeks ago. The system will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cancun and Cozumel on Monday night and Tuesday morning. Like Delta, it may weaken briefly over land.
On Tuesday, as the system reemerges over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it will gain a little of its strength back, likely regaining hurricane intensity and staying that way until Wednesday afternoon as it moves north. But on Wednesday, it should run into strong upper-level winds as it nears the Gulf Coast, where the official forecast calls for slight weakening at landfall Wednesday evening.
The hurricane center's forecast cone shows landfall anywhere between southeast Louisiana and the Alabama Coast. This would be the eighth storm to make landfall along the Gulf Coast this season, with the highest concentration in Louisiana.
Computer models call for continued intensification before the system makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula because the system is located over the warmest pool of water in the hemisphere and upper-level winds are becoming more favorable for development.
A reminder that #Zeta is over the warmest water in the Hemisphere. Shear is pretty strong on the outskirts of the storm envelope but there is a small area above the storm offering protection. Its enough for strengthening to a hurricane. Will be interesting to see just how much. pic.twitter.com/Tkbu4NanHT
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) October 25, 2020
Zeta is the 27th named system of the 2020 season, which is running over a month ahead of the record pace set back in 2005. That year featured 28 tropical storms, and the last did not form until the end of December. That puts 2020 well on track to either tie or break the all-time record for the number of named storms in the Atlantic in one season.
In the Atlantic Ocean, the chance that any given storm will reach major hurricane intensity (Category 3, 4 or 5) is now twice as likely than it was in the 1980s, showing just how influential warmer ocean waters can be.