Tropical Storm Rafael forms in the Caribbean, expected to strengthen to hurricane
The 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed on Monday when a tropical depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael. It is forecast to bring heavy rains to Jamaica and hit Cuba as a hurricane later this week, the National Hurricane Center said.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands while a hurricane watch was issued for parts of Cuba as Rafael continued to move north. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Jamaica.
The hurricane center said in an advisory Monday that the system was expected to approach the northwestern part of Cuba around the time it reaches hurricane strength.
"On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday," forecasters said. They wrote in an earlier advisory that the system "could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands and Cuba."
As of 4 p.m. EST Monday, Rafael was about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, moving northward at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, the center reported. Maximum sustained winds of 74 mph are needed for classification as a hurricane.
"Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday," the hurricane center said.
The Miami-based hurricane center said the heaviest rainfall is forecast to occur over Jamaica and parts of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall will likely be accompanied by hurricane conditions in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon, and, possibly, in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions were expected to arrive in Jamaica by Monday night.
"Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible," the center noted.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeast United States in the mid-to-late week, the center said.
CBS News meteorologist Nicolette Nolan says the system is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico.
"Models are in disagreement of where it will track after it reaches the Gulf," Nolan says, "but the Gulf coasts from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida need to be on alert for impacts at the end of the week."