Senate negotiations on "mother of all sanctions" bill against Russia continue as deadlines loom
Negotiations on Senator Robert Menendez's "mother of all sanctions" bill are still going on in the Gang of 8 bipartisan senators from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, but time is running out for any sanctions legislation to have a deterrent effect before any potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russia's joint military exercises with Belarus will end on February 20, close to when the Beijing Winter Olympics conclude. Russian athletes are competing, and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the opening ceremonies. Russia does have a history of invading around the Olympics, notably going into Georgia in 2008, around the Summer Olympics and into Crimea in 2014 around the Winter Olympics. The Senate goes into recess for a week on February 21, leaving little time for them to enact a bill.
The "Gang of 8" is made up of Menendez and fellow Democratic Senators Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Ben Cardin of Maryland and Republicans Senators Jim Risch of Idaho, Rob Portman of Ohio, John Cornyn of Texas and Lindsay Graham of South Carolina. A Senate aide said they are discussing whether a Russian cyberattack on Ukraine should trigger sanctions, even absent an invasion.
Still, the main sticking point between Senate Republicans and Democrats remains the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the timing of sanctions. The pipeline, which was completed in September and would send gas to Germany, is not yet being used. President Biden has threatened to shut it down if Russia invades. Republicans generally are arguing for more pre-emptive sanctions to deter Russia, while Democrats are wary of setting a precedent for imposing sanctions for an action that has not yet transpired.
But the senators are discussing other actions taken by Russia that could be punished by their legislation.
"Russia has committed actions that already could be used to bring about further sanctions. I think everyone agrees on that —unrelated to further incursions into Ukraine," Cardin told CBS News.
Preemptive sanctions could target senior Kremlin officials and Putin's inner circle, among others. Should Russia invade Ukraine, the sanctions being discussed could even punish Putin himself, as well as Russia's energy sector and other industries. One Senate aide described the level of sanctions as "Iran-esque." The negotiations remain fluid, however.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has doubts about the efficacy of sanctions, though. "I think the most important thing is for the administration and the president has all the authority to do this already, to use every tool in his toolbox before the invasion." McConnell told reporters this week. "I'm skeptical — appreciate the effort of bipartisan senators to come back together behind some kind of legislation — I don't think Putin will be deterred by any piece of legislation."
Perhaps the most effective deterrent is the threat against Nord Stream II.
"It is an opportunity to make Putin think twice about any invasion, among other things that we are seeking to do, and so the president's definitive statement, I think, is incredibly important," said Menendez about Biden's declaration during a Washington Post Live event on Tuesday.
One Senate aide told CBS News that the bill currently would not grant Mr. Biden a national security waiver for Nord Stream 2 sanctions, meaning if Putin invaded, then Mr. Biden could not stop these sanctions from going into effect. Currently, he has a national security waiver for all other sanctions in the legislation — meaning he could pull the plug on any of them.
Cardin is still hopeful Congress can finish work on the bill, given its bipartisan support. He told CBS News "This is something that is very challenging to the future security of Europe. So we are united that if Russia in fact, does use this military incursion, that the consequences have to be very, very severe and that we would certainly use all of the economic sanctions that we can muster."