Poll: Bernie Sanders leapfrogs Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire
Bernie Sanders has leapfrogged Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a poll released Wednesday by Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald.
Of the 442 likely voters surveyed, 44 percent said their first choice is Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont who's waging an insurgent bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. Thirty-seven percent chose Clinton, the former secretary of state who's considered a strong frontrunner for her party's nod.
The results mark the first time Sanders has led a public poll of an early primary or caucus state since he launched his bid in April.
Some caveats: support for the candidates is relatively soft at this early stage in the race, with 60 percent of respondents saying they could change their mind before the primary is held.
Additionally, Clinton still has the highest favorability ratings of any Democratic candidate in the poll, at 80 percent. Sanders is not far behind at 76 percent. In the end, 65 percent of respondents predicted Clinton would win the nomination, while only 11 percent said Sanders would emerge the victor.
The results, compiled between August 7-10, have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent.
Sanders' bid has lit enthusiasm among some sectors of the Democratic base, attracting thousands of people to rallies and yielding millions of dollars in online donations. The longtime senator has made income inequality a defining theme of his bid, railing against Wall Street and corporate America for living in excess while average Americans struggle to keep up.
Sanders' chief strategist, Tad Devine, told CBS News last month that the campaign is "very pleased" with their showing thus far, but it's "really just the beginning."
"In order for this to succeed, we're going to have to make it much bigger. Now the test is can we put together a ground organization in early states and get ballot access everywhere," he said.
Not everyone is convinced Team Sanders can make that happen. Clinton still has a lot of assets on her side, including more money, a more robust organization, and more endorsements from elected officials. There are also signs Sanders may have trouble wooing core Democratic constituencies like black and latino voters.
Clinton also still holds a big lead nationally: In a CBS News poll released earlier this month, 58 percent of Democrats nationwide threw their support behind Clinton, while only 17 percent backed Sanders.
Still, the poll on Wednesday suggests Sanders is making headway among New Hampshire voters, who will hold the first primary of the 2016 cycle on February 9 next year.
Devine suggested a victory in an early state like New Hampshire will be a crucial part of Sanders' strategy to seize the nomination. "When there's a surprising victory in an early state by a longshot opponent, the tables can turn very quickly," he said.