One year ago: Should we take Donald Trump seriously?
In retrospect, the Republican nomination was always Donald Trump's to lose. It just took most observers a few months to realize it.
Thursday marks one year since Trump plunged headlong into the presidential race with a fiery, rambling speech at Trump Tower that laid out the basic premises of his candidacy - the scorn for political correctness, the attacks on immigrants, the argument that America is getting bilked by foreign countries.
It was a performance that immediately earned Trump an audience among parts of the Republican base, even as it drew a swift outcry from the GOP establishment. But despite their angst, most Republican officials remained dismissive of Trump's candidacy in its early months. Almost nobody expected him to emerge as the party's nominee.
Still, a look back at the first extended discussion of Trump's candidacy on "Face the Nation" demonstrates that all the elements of Trump's rise were in place from the outset - the talent for attacking his opponents, the uncanny knack for reading and channeling the anxieties of the GOP base, the ability to dominate the news cycle and deprive his competitors of oxygen. It wasn't yet clear that Trump would be able to parlay these strategies into a victory, but he never tried to conceal the basic thrust of his approach. It was all out on the table from the beginning.
Moderator John Dickerson posed a question to four political panelists on our July 5 broadcast regarding Trump's decision to enter the race: "Is this a big problem for Republicans, or is this just one of those moments that will pass?"
Fernando Espuelas, a contributor to The Hill newspaper, suggested it was a "big problem" because it played into a larger narrative that the "Republican Party is hostile to Hispanics and Hispanic voters in particular."
"I think a lot of the candidates have had a bit of trouble trying to deal with what Trump said, but have not wanted to cross the line to criticize him," Espuelas added.
"They were afraid of him," agreed Politico's Mike Allen. "Trump has a very specific constituency. He's second in New Hampshire now. And it goes beyond the sort of Kardashian, my car crashed appeal. Is this sort of anti-Washington, mad at politics appeal that [Ross] Perot, years ago, tapped into. And remember, a few years ago, these candidates were going -- including Mitt Romney -- going to Trump trying to get his endorsement, because he does have a following and they're afraid, A, of alienating the people who like him, and, B, they're afraid of him going after them."
The Atlantic's Molly Ball added, "The candidates are not just afraid of Trump, but they're sort of afraid of that segment part of the base and its ability to get very passionate and to rise up, particularly over this issue of illegal immigration."
The New York Times' Peter Baker suggested that Trump's divisive rise in the primary would serve to distract from the Democrats' own problems with party unity: A prophecy that, more or less, came to pass as Trump's controversies largely drowned out the surprisingly competitive Democratic primary at several key moments.
"Democrats had their divisions on this displayed just a couple of weeks ago on trade," Baker explained. "They were at war with their president. Of course they would rather Republicans be talking about things that the Republicans don't want to be talking about."
A full transcript of the panel discussion is below.
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DICKERSON: And we're back to talk politics with Molly Ball and the "Atlantic" magazine.
Plus, we're joined by Politico's one and only Mike Allen.
Peter Baker is the White House correspondent for "The New York Times."
And Fernando Espuelas is a former Univision Radio host and a contributor for "The Hill" newspaper.
Welcome to all of you.
And that was Rick Santorum not exactly embracing Donald Trump, another one who's running, who is distancing themselves from his remarks.
But I want to play a clip from Jeb Bush, who kind of took it one step further and talked about the party.
Let's listen to it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JEB BUSH (R), FORMER GOVERNOR OF FLORIDA: But politically, we're going to win when we're hopeful and optimistic and big and broad rather than, you know, grrrr or errrr, just angry all the time. And this is an exaggerated form of that. And there is no tolerance for it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DICKERSON: I wonder how that's going to look on the the second point, errrr.
Fernando, is this a big problem for Republicans or is this just one of those moments that will pass?
FERNANDO ESPUELAS, FORMER UNIVISION RADIO HOST, CONTRIBUTOR, "THE HILL": I think it's a big problem because it plays into a larger narrative, which is that the Republican Party is hostile to Hispanics and Hispanic voters in particular.
And that last comment we just heard from Governor Bush actually is after his first comment, which was, it's wrong and then avoided the -- the whole question.
So I think a lot of the candidates have had a bit of trouble trying to deal with what Trump said, but have not wanted to cross the line to criticize him.
DICKERSON: Mike? (INAUDIBLE)?
MIKE ALLEN, "POLITICO": No, they were afraid of him. The reason that -- that Senator Santorum didn't just say no, to your last question, is that Trump has a very specific constituency. He's second in New Hampshire now. And it goes beyond the sort of Kardashian, my car crashed appeal. Is this sort of anti-Washington, mad at politics appeal that Perot, years ago, tapped into.
And remember, a few years ago, these candidates were going -- including Mitt Romney -- going to Trump trying to get his endorsement, because he does have a following and they're afraid, A, of alienating the people who like him, and, B, they're afraid of him going after them.
DICKERSON: Molly, Donald Trump has said he has not backed away. He's doing a lot of things we are not used to seeing in politics. He has not sort of gone away from these remarks, he's jumped in with both feet. He's saying he's just telling a truth and that the rest of these Republicans are mealy-mouthed.
Does he have somewhere to go with that?
Is that...
MOLLY BALL, THE ATLANTIC: Well, there's obviously, like Mikey said, talks about 10, 15 percent of the Republican base who believe that very, very passionately. And you see, I think, the candidates are not just afraid of Trump, but they're sort of afraid of that segment part of the base and its ability to get very passionate and to rise up, particularly over this issue of illegal immigration.
You see, you know, Jeb Bush, someone who said that he was going to run in a way that would be willing to lose the primary to win the general election, but it took him two weeks to respond to these comments by Donald Trump and he seemed to sort of be hiding from it. This is someone who, you know, also said that, someone who's -- who's married to a Mexican woman, whose children are Mexican-American. He takes this personally.
But I think a lot of Hispanic voters are going to wonder why, then, did it take him so long to express that?
DICKERSON: And remember, just to give you a sense of the spectrum and -- and of the conversation, Jeb Bush was the one who, a year ago, said that people come to America because they love -- they do it for love.
(CROSSTALK)
BALL: Right.
DICKERSON: So the other side of Donald Trump.
Peter, "The Washington Post" said Democrats love this.
PETER BAKER, WASHINGTON POST: Yes.
DICKERSON: Do you think so?
BAKER: Well...
(CROSSTALK)
BAKER: Sure, why not?
Yes. Look, you know, Democrats had their divisions on this displayed just a couple of weeks ago on trade. They were at war with their president. Of course they would rather Republicans be talking about things that the Republicans don't want to be talking about.
They don't want to be talking about their own divisions on immigration. They don't want to talk about their own divisions on same-sex marriage.
All the candidates are against same-sex marriage, but there are degrees. And -- and they're uncomfortable with the issue because they -- they know that while a lot of their base still believes very fervently this is a wrong decision morally and legally, there are a lot of Republicans these days who feel differently.
And it's been striking to see not the liberal reaction to the same-sex marriage ruling, but the conservative reaction to same-sex marriage, in which any of them have actually embraced this as a, you know, a reasonable thing. And others aren't.
And they -- they don't want to talk about that right now.
DICKERSON: Mike Allen, Donald Trump is likely to be on that first ta -- stage on the debate.
Do you think that matters, that it -- that it's a problem for other candidates?
ALLEN: Sure it does because he soaks up air time that others would like. This week on Tuesday, Marco Rubio is going to be in Chicago giving a speech about 21st century jobs, tech and innovation. The next day, Donald Trump, we've learned, is kicking off a five day, five state tour. He's going to be in California when -- where there's been huge attention to these remarks. Nevada, Arizona, Louisiana, Florida -- Louisiana and Virginia.
Which of those do you think is going to get more attention?
And on the stage, you would think that Chris Christie would be the big presence and the drama about will Carly Fiorina need to be on the stage, which, if I'm a Republican, I really want her to be on the stage, just for the optics, but Donald Trump, with his name recognition, it's going to be hard for him not to qualify.