Sheehy wins Montana 2024 Senate election, CBS News projects. See the race results.

How Congress will look after Election Day

Washington — Republican Tim Sheehy will defeat Sen. Jon Tester in the Montana Senate race, CBS News projects, flipping a seat from the Democrats to strengthen the GOP majority in the upper chamber.

Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and founder of an aerial firefighting company, received his party's backing as the candidate to take on Tester. The 38-year-old worked to draw a contrast with Tester, portraying himself as an outsider during the campaign while painting the Democrat as an establishment candidate with deep ties to Washington. He also touted bringing jobs to Montana with his business, which made him wealthy enough to help fund his campaign. 

Sheehy, who grew up in Minnesota, has faced criticism for lacking the deep roots that Tester has in the state. He has also faced questions about discrepancies in his story of how he sustained a gunshot wound. Meanwhile, Tester sought to portray his opponent as an out-of-touch carpetbagger, likening the GOP candidate to rich out-of-staters who have flocked to Montana in recent years. 

Tester is a third-generation Montana farmer. First elected to the Senate in 2006, his brand is well known in the state, and despite its more conservative politics, he had previously won reelection twice as a moderate Democrat. 

L-R: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) and Republican candidate Tim Sheehy. Getty Images

But Montana's political landscape has changed. In 2020, Donald Trump won Montana by more than 16 points, and trends suggest that an influx of new residents in the state is made up largely of Republicans. The state's changing dynamics posed a serious hurdle for Tester — the sole Democrat serving in statewide office in Montana.

The Montana Senate seat was a key target for Republicans, and it marked among the final Democratic holdouts in the Great Plains, and in red states more broadly. 

Going into Election Day with a narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate, Democrats had little room for error after Sen. Joe Manchin opted not to seek reelection, all but guaranteeing a GOP flip of his seat in West Virginia. And along with a flip in Ohio, Republicans saw Tester's seat as the next best opportunity to gain ground.

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