Trump-backed Dan Cox projected to win Maryland GOP primary for governor

CBS News has projected Dan Cox to win the Republican nomination for governor of Maryland, where Tuesday's primary elections serve as the latest barometer for former President Donald Trump's influence over the Republican Party, as well as an example of how Democratic candidates are looking to address the rising rate of crime. 

The GOP primary was a proxy war between two Republicans eyeing 2024 presidential bids, the sitting governor, Larry Hogan, and Trump. Hogan, who is term limited, won in 2014 and 2018 in the reliably Democratic state as a moderate Republican. He had been looking to continue the winning streak for Republicans in his mold and backed his former secretary of commerce, Kelly Schulz.   

Trump backed Cox, who has embraced his debunked claims that the 2020 election was stolen and has called for a forensic audit. The former president held a telerally for Cox in the closing week of the race. 

"You don't want Hogan's anointed successor. Anybody he wants, frankly, I'd be against just on that basis alone," Trump said during the telerally.

Cox held a small lead over Schulz in most polls, but trailed her in fundraising and spent a fraction of what she had spent on advertisements, according to data from AdImpact. 

But Cox was also boosted by independent expenditure ads by the Democratic Governors Association, who spent $1.2 million to highlight his conservative credentials and his Trump endorsement. Democrats have used this strategy successfully to boost far-right Republican candidates in Illinois and Pennsylvania, and unsuccessfully in Colorado. 

"Dan Cox is a pathological liar, a conspiracy nut, and he's completely unfit to serve as governor — and that's exactly why the DGA is willing to spend this kind of money supporting him," Schulz said in a statement. 

While Schulz and Hogan have blasted the approach, the committee points to Cox's lead in the polls and says it is getting a headstart for the general election. A late June poll by Goucher College, Baltimore Banner and WYPR showed Cox with 25% and Schulz with 22%, though 44% were undecided. 

"Cox was a single-term delegate from Frederick county. A backbencher, somebody that people really didn't know. But out of sort of nowhere he's become a competitive candidate," said Mileah Kromer, director of the Center for Politics at Goucher College. "It's clear that the Trump endorsement helped Cox [in the primary]. Trump remains a popular figure among Maryland Republicans, and a very unpopular figure among everyone else."

Meanwhile, nine Democratic candidates are running to be the state's first Democratic governor in over seven years. Only three have consistently polled over double digits: author and nonprofit executive Wes Moore, comptroller Peter Franchot and former Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez. 

The Democratic primary has turned into a microcosm of how the party, and its candidates, is shifting its tone on crime and policing. The issue of public safety is becoming more of a priority for Democratic voters. A poll by Goucher College in late June showed that 69% of Democratic voters thought of "crime and public safety" as a major concern, behind inflation and climate change. 

When candidates in the state talk about crime, Baltimore is the city that comes up on the trail. The city has seen steady upticks in gun-related incidents and robberies in the past year.

Former Maryland Attorney General Doug Gansler has made crime central to his campaign. A TV ad from his campaign features a reenactment of a carjacking and claims Gansler has the experience to tackle the problem.

"People feel less safe because they are less safe," Gansler said in Silver Spring, Maryland, on Sunday. He called the movement to defund the police a "nonstarter" and has called for a thousand more police officers to patrol the streets.

"We can't think that simply adding officers alone is going to solve the problem," counters Moore, who spoke at a festival in Westminster the same day. "The candidates who will be rewarded are those who are thinking holistically."

Perez notes that the defund the police movement never resonated with mainstream Democrats. 

"There were a few people who talked about defunding the police. It wasn't Joe Biden, it certainly wasn't Tom Perez, and it wasn't the vast majority of Democrats. What I have said is we need to work together and invest in making sure police departments are effective and are respecting the Constitution," Perez said in Baltimore on Monday. 

By contrast, Cox and Schulz have both touted their support from law enforcement and have criticized local Democratic prosecutors. 

Larry Stafford, executive director of Progressive Maryland, a group that backed Perez, said the party has had a "tough challenge" balancing acknowledging root issues of crime and addressing public safety. 

"We're afraid to go downtown, a lot of people are, or out at night, a lot of people are," said Baltimore retiree Joe Godsy. "When I was a child, you could walk anywhere. Now, you just can't do that."

In the U.S. Senate race, CBS News projects incumbent Chris Van Hollen wins the Democratic nomination. He faced a primary challenge after having what he called a minor stroke in May. According to The Associated Press, he's favored to beat Republican Chris Chaffee in November. Chaffee sought a congressional seat in 2014 but his bid came up short.

In Democratic the primaries for the U.S. House, CBS News projected the following incumbents have won re-nomination: Reps. Dutch Ruppersberger in the 2nd District, John Sarbanes in 3rd District, Steny Hoyer in the 5th District, David Trone in 6th District, Kweisi Mfume in 7th District, Jamie Raskin in 8th District. 

CBS News projects Heather Mizeur wins the Democratic nomination in the 1st U.S. House District. She will face Republican incumbent Andy Harris, who ran unopposed for the Republican nomination in the 1st District.  

CBS News projects Neil Parrott will win the Republican nomination in the 6th District, defeating conservative writer Matthew Foldi, who was backed by Trump, Hogan and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.