Marco Rubio seeks a path to the White House through eastern and central Iowa
Iowa, where the nation's first voting contest will be held in 2016, is characterized by something of a split personality, at least where Republicans are concerned. In 2012, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney topped the caucuses, and in 2016, some of the mainstream GOP candidates, particularly Marco Rubio, are trying to figure out whether Mitt Romney's approach will work for them.
A look at the 2012 Iowa caucus map shows a veritable sea of Santorum counties - with mostly evangelical and socially conservative voters - interrupted by a few dots representing the counties won by Romney in the center of the state and another small cluster in the east, where the more business-friendly centrist denizens are. They make their homes in the bigger metropolitan hubs and in pockets on the eastern edge of the state bordering Wisconsin and Minnesota.
If the caucuses were won by geographic area, Santorum would have won by a landslide. But that handful of dots representing the GOP establishment-friendly counties that chose Romney are more densely populated.
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Still, at this point, the religious strain of Republicanism is stronger than the establishment. A recent poll found 39 percent of GOP caucus goers identified as evangelical, while just 22 percent identified as business-friendly or establishment Republicans. But the hope for a candidate of either persuasion is that the other side will split the rest of the gargantuan field.
Mitt Romney, in 2012, won over voters in the more centrist Republican counties while Santorum took the evangelical vote. All in all, Romney won just 16 of the 99 counties in Iowa but because his pockets of support were in higher-populated urban hubs enough votes went his way to win him the caucuses, if temporarily, by just 8 votes. Two weeks later, Santorum was certified the winner, by 34 votes.
In 2016, several candidates are fighting for the mantle of mainstream-electable: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich. But these candidates have to choose where to concentrate their time and money on the trail, and most of them have chosen New Hampshire (although Kasich may be flirting with Iowa, too). Rubio may see see an opening in Iowa to emulate Romney's near-victory.
In the month of August, Rubio started down that path by making the centrally-located Des Moines, and its neighboring towns, his primary stomping grounds. This is Polk County: the largest county in the state, with the biggest media market in the state and most accessible airport.
He spent maybe a little too much time - most of August - with Polk County folk and state Iowa Sen. Jack Whitver who is Rubio's campaign co-chair. "There is more to Iowa than Jack Whitver's backyard," one Iowan Republican grumbled.
He's also recently held campaign events in the east, in Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Cedar Falls, and Davenport. Three of these four cities are in counties that Romney won in 2012.
Given the disparity between conservative and mainstream GOP in Iowa, "for a candidate like Rubio to win Iowa he's going to have to not just do well in these communities, he needs to win them," Craig Robinson of the "Iowa Republican" says.
Another point that might be made about the Romney approach - with really just two concentrated population clusters to focus on - in central and eastern Iowa, the retail politics is fairly manageable. Meanwhile, Rick Santorum, who's running again this cycle, made another tour around all 99 counties of Iowa this cycle.
The voters in the eastern part of the state embrace the electable. Terri Shepard, a 59-year-old native of Eldora, Iowa, supported Romney in 2012, and now she thinks now Rubio is the party's best hope.
"I want someone that can win," Shepard said in a very blunt tone. "I think he may be the one that can win and put us back on track." At other events voters expressed similar sentiments.
"I'm glad he came to town," said Pat Regan, who was at Rubio's event in Davenport. Regan said that he was "kind of begrudgingly" a Romney supporter in 2012 and Rubio's energy could take him all the way.
But Rubio is a very different candidate than Romney -- in both professional and personal experience. Romney caucus goers aren't all going to turn into Rubio supporters.
"I don't see a correlation between Romney and Rubio people per se," says Andy Cable, a member of the Iowa State Central Committee who worked on Romney's 2008 campaign.
Of the candidates running for the GOP nomination, it's Jeb Bush who has a resume that's closer to Romney's - both have private sector experience and were governors, both jobs that are missing from Rubio's resume.
"Unlike Romney, he has not run anything," says one Cedar Falls native of Rubio.
With Scott Walker's departure from the race, Iowa has begun to look a little more enticing to Bush and Kasich, so Rubio may find himself running into the two of them a little more as he makes his eastern push. Kasich hit Davenport and Cedar Rapids last week. And Bush is also spending a little time in Scott County this week.