Marco Rubio faces significant hurdles in re-election attempt
Florida Senator Marco Rubio announced Wednesday that he would in fact run again for his Senate seat after months of continually dismissing the idea. In a statement, Rubio admitted that he had changed his mind, adding he "never claimed to be perfect" and after consulting with his family this weekend that "there was simply too much at stake for any other choice."
The news was universally welcomed by fellow Republicans worried about maintaining their Senate majority and who see Rubio as the best candidate to hold onto that seat as the incumbent. Polling in Florida released just before his announcement shows that Rubio re-enters the race as the front-runner against both potential Democratic candidates, Reps. Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson.
Polling aside, Rubio faces several significant challenges now that he has thrown his hat back into the ring to what is now arguably the highest profile Senate race in the country.
Charges of opportunism:
Rubio starts his reelection campaign immediately on the defensive, having to explain almost an entire year of statements about his disdain for the Senate and that he would not seek reelection while running for president.
He will face tough questions from the press and other candidates about his past statements, including whether this decision is really only based on his desire to run for president again in 2020. Less than a month ago, he told CNN that running for the office again was a "safe assumption."
And Rubio has made his disdain for working in the Senate abundantly clear. In November, he responded to attacks by Sen. Harry Reid about missing votes while campaigning for the GOP nomination by saying "nothing happens" in the Senate.
"Harry Reid's been attacking me lately because he claims I said that I hate the Senate. I never said that I hate the Senate. What I said is, I'm frustrated at my time in the Senate because nothing happens, we don't do anything, we have a debt that keeps growing they don't do anything about it -- 90 percent of the votes are show votes. They're symbolic -- to make a political point" Rubio told reporters in Iowa.
Rubio signaled in his statement today how he will respond to that criticism, admitting that although the "U.S. Senate can be a frustrating place," it is also where a senator can work for his constituents and advance "great policy."
But beyond his negative comments on the Senate as an institution, Rubio will also have to defend his change of heart, which he has tied to the mass shooting in Orlando earlier this month. "Tt really gives you pause to think a little bit about, you know, your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country," Rubio told Hugh Hewitt in the aftermath of the attack.
Before Orlando, Rubio was adamant throughout his campaign that he would either be the president or a private citizen come January.
Just four days before losing the Florida primary to Donald Trump by eighteen points and dropping out of the race, Rubio was asked at a press conference in West Palm Beach whether he had considered running for Florida Governor in 2018. Again, Rubio insisted that he had no interest in being elected to anything other than the presidency.
"I intend to be the nominee. I will be president or a private citizen. If I never hold elected office again, I am comfortable with that. No plans, thoughts, meetings of any future run."
A Democratic advantage in 2016:
The political landscape in Florida this cycle also presents a challenge to Rubio -- even as an incumbent. A perennial battleground at the presidential level, Florida will be seen as a major prize by both the Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton campaigns.
Rubio will have to navigate his own race and attempt to maintain his independence from Trump - his party's nominee - a candidate who has proven to be unpredictable. Rubio admitted he has "significant disagreements" with Trump and during the primaries called him "a con artist" who was "wholly unprepared to be president of the United States." Now that Trump is the nominee, Rubio is still trying to keep his distance.
"I don't think it's a mystery that I disagree with Donald on a number of issues," Rubio said Wednesday about Trump, whom he has endorsed. "I don't think it's a mystery that I think some of the things he has said, many of the things he has said, particularly about women and minorities, are things that I find to be offensive."
Historically, Democrats have enjoyed the benefit of the increased turnout that comes during a presidential election year. The latest polling shows Clinton up eight points over Trump, 48 percent to 40 percent, among voters in the Sunshine State.
Rubio joined the Senate 2010 riding the "Tea Party Wave" that came to DC in response to President Obama's first two years in office and push on the Affordable Care Act. Rubio also benefited from a three-man race that year when then Gov. Charlie Crist dropped out of the Republican primary and decided to run as an independent in the general, which cut into Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek's support.
This year will almost certainly see a two-man race, with Rubio (assuming he wins the Republican primary) facing off against Murphy, the pick of most Democratic insiders, or Grayson.
Fundraising:
Florida is not an inexpensive place to run a competitive statewide campaign. In 2010, Rubio raised and spent over 21 million dollars for the race and had support from outside groups including the influential Club for Growth. After an unsuccessful presidential run, Rubio starts his reelection bid with just $23,000 cash on hand and $1.9 million worth of debt.
The Club for Growth quickly confirmed it would support Rubio again in his reelection bid (rescinding its support from Rep. Ron DeSantis, who they now expect to run again for his House seat). Other outside groups will likely come to Rubio's aid, along with the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
With a national network of donors left over from his presidential campaign, funding may not be a major issue for Rubio, but getting into the race this late (just before the filing deadline June 24th) won't make it any easier as he begins to build a campaign infrastructure and advertise in expensive media markets across the state.
Despite these challenges, it is clear for Republicans that having Rubio defend his seat is their best option during a cycle where they have twenty-four seats to defend compared to just ten for the Democrats. The race in Florida will be contentious, attract nationwide attention and could very well determine control of the Senate.
For Rubio personally, jumping back in presents the risk of losing in his home state twice in the same year, something that could permanently derail any further aspirations for higher office.
Alex Conant, Rubio's communication advisor in his presidential campaign and an advisor on his reelection bid, acknowledged the campaign is off to a late start while insisting that they were better off than they were six years ago.
"Florida is always a competitive state, and this will be a competitive race. One challenge is that Marco is entering the race relatively late, but he's fortunate to have a lot of grassroots supporters across Florida who are ready to mobilize quickly. The path ahead is certainly much easier than when he entered the race six years ago."