What to watch for in the March 10 primaries
A week after Super Tuesday, the Democratic field has winnowed to two main candidates, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, who will be fighting for delegates in six states on Tuesday. The most closely-watched of these upcoming six states is Michigan. With 125 delegates, it offers the biggest prize of the night. In 2016, Sanders scored a major surprise upset against Hillary Clinton, by winning the majority of white voters, though Clinton won handily among black voters and women.
It is unclear whether Sanders can replicate that victory this time around against Biden. Like Clinton, Biden has so far proven he has significant support among African Americans, and he is also more popular among working-class white voters than Clinton was.
A poll published last week by Detroit News/WDIV (in the field before, during and after the South Carolina primary but before Super Tuesday) found that Biden leads with African American voters and women, while Sanders had a 1 point lead with white voters and a 0.4 point lead among men.
As of last week, according to the Detroit News/WDIV poll, absentee voters who had cast their votes also heavily favored Biden over Sanders. Pollster Richard Czuba estimated that "Biden can bank an almost 150,000-vote lead on Sanders just through absentees." Michigan voters care most about beating President Trump (39.3%). Health care was a distant second (18.5%), the survey found.
A post-Super Tuesday poll from Monmouth University, released Monday, had Biden leading with 51% to Sanders' 36%. Among voters over 50, Biden led 62% to 24%, but among voters 49 and under, Sanders led 49% to 39%. Sanders led among men, 49% to 39%, but among women, Biden led 53% to 33%.
Sanders is making a big push in Michigan, having appeared at events in five different cities during the final weekend before Tuesday's primary. He went to the county where he suffered his biggest defeat in 2016 by vote total, Wayne County, home of Detroit, and the county where he had his biggest win by vote total, Kent County, where Grand Rapids is located. He also stopped by the liberal haven of Ann Arbor to try to boost support from University of Michigan students at a rally with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Young voters were critical to his success in 2016 in Michigan, and they're supporting him in large numbers so far in 2020. On the trail here, he has been vocal about trade, continuing to hammer home the theme that Biden has championed trade deals like NAFTA that many union voters view with suspicion.
Turnout among African American voters will be closely watched. Though Biden's ties to black voters have been proven in the races to date, turnout here, particularly in Wayne County, their level of enthusiasm for him could be a key factor on Tuesday. Suburban women are another key constituency for Biden, too.
Sanders has promised to expand the electorate with new voters, but after a disappointing showing on Super Tuesday, he has admitted some disappointment that the level of turnout is not what he had hoped for or anticipated.
Michigan holds what's known as an open closed primary — there is no party registration requirement in the state. Any person can vote in either party's primary, but voters must ask for one party's ballot when they show up at the polls and identify in writing which political party they wish to vote with in the primary.
Due to a 2018 ballot measure, voters can vote absentee without providing a reason. If they voted absentee for a candidate who has since suspended his or her campaign, they can change their vote if they submitted requests in writing by March 7 or appear in person by Monday, March 9. As of Friday, 24,109 people had done this, according to the Michigan Secretary of State's office.
Michigan's results could take some time to tabulate. As of March 5, about 90% more absentee ballots were sent compared to five days before the primary in 2016. Nearly 600,000 absentee ballots had been cast as of that day. The secretary of state has pushed Michigan's Legislature to change state law to allow clerks to process or count absentee ballots before Election Day.
Sanders is expected to do well in Idaho and North Dakota, both states with largely white and rural populations, and both states he won in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. He is also polling high in Washington state, the last primary to close on Tuesday. But like California, most of Washington votes by mail, so the results may not be known for some time.
Mississippi
Mississippi also votes on Tuesday. It's a state that's expected to go big for Biden, given that it has an even larger African American Democratic electorate than South Carolina. In 2016, 71% of the Democratic primary voters in the state were African American.
Polls will be open between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. ET. There is no early voting in the state. Absentee ballots had to be received by March 9 to be counted.
As of March 5, more than 15,000 voters had requested an absentee ballot for the March 10 election according to the secretary of state's office. As of March 3, only 10,503 ballots have been received by the circuit clerks offices.
Missouri
In 2016, Clinton had the support from key political figures and labor unions in the state but won the state by less than 1,500 votes. Exit polling said Clinton won women with 54% but Sanders won men with 56%. Sanders also won over voters under 44, while Clinton had the backing of voters in the state 45 years old and up. Clinton also won 67% of black voters, compared to Sanders 32%, but Sanders won white voters 54% to 45%.
Missouri is an open primary, so voters can ask for any party's ballot on election day. Delegates will be allocated proportionally to the vote, and the threshold for delegates is 15%. Missouri does not have early voting but allows absentee voting. The period to request ballots ended last week, and those ballots must either be received by the time polls close Tuesday or submitted in person by Monday.
According to the office of the Missouri secretary of state, 66,374 people had requested absentee ballots as of March 6, but a spokesperson for the office said it would not have a clear sense of how many had been returned until after the election.
Idaho
In the Idaho primary, candidates need to meet at 15% threshold at the congressional district level or statewide to be considered viable. Independent and unaffiliated voters are allowed to participate in the Democratic primary but cannot participate in the Republican primary. In-person early voting in Idaho ran from February 24 through March 6.
In 2018, Idaho changed from a party-run caucus to a state-run primary. Idaho allows same-day registration for voters at polling locations. Sanders prevailed against Clinton in the state in 2016.
North Dakota
North Dakota holds a firehouse caucus, which is essentially a party-run primary. The caucuses are open and anyone can participate. Voting by mail took place January 20 through March 5. In the open caucuses, candidates must meet a threshold of 15% statewide to be considered viable.
In 2016, Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in the state, winning the state's 18 delegates. Its voters are also largely white and rural.
Poll closing times and delegates available
8 p.m. ET
Mississippi (36 pledged delegates)
Missouri (68 pledged delegates)
9 p.m. ET
Michigan (125 pledged delegates)
*Most polls close at 8 p.m. ET but Michigan is in two time zones
10 p.m. ET
Idaho (20 pledged delegates)
*District 2 closes at 10 p.m., District 1 closes at 11 p.m.
11 p.m. ET
North Dakota (14 pledged delegates)
*Some polls close at 8 p.m., but North Dakota is in two time zones
Washington (89 pledged delegates)
*Vote by mail only and ballots must be postmarked no later than Election Day