Is America's electrical grid fading to black?

Are you prepared to live "off the grid," independent of major electric utilities? Many people who live in Washington, D.C., may be ready for a change -- after widespread power outages in the region on Tuesday, due to a problem in a utility company transmission line.

While the term may sound like something out of a novel, a growing number of U.S. consumers and businesses are actually expected to be living "off the grid" over the next several decades - to the point where some of the big utilities may find themselves in a new financial reality.

According to a new report by Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and HOMER Energy, a firm that designs remote microgrids, the development of practical and efficient solar-plus battery systems is an economic and cultural game-changer.

The report looked at median commercial and residential electrical customers in five very different metro areas - Louisville, Kentucky, Westchester County, New York, San Antonio, Texas, Los Angeles, California, and Honolulu, Hawaii - and evaluated their local economics through to 2050.

And their findings were startling. "Over time, as retail electricity prices from the grid increase and solar and battery costs decrease," said the report's executive summary, "customers logically reduce their grid purchases until the grid takes a backup-only role."

For example, according to RMI's analysis, the New York suburb of Westchester Country could see utility grid's supply to overall electric power for commercial customers in the region shrink from 100 percent today to around 25 percent by 2030 - and to less than five percent by 2050.

"These findings should be compelling for customers and technology providers," RMI principal and report author James Mandel said in a press statement. "No matter how expensive retail electricity gets in the future, customers that invest in these grid-connected systems can contain their electricity costs at or below a 'peak price,' yielding significant savings on their monthly utility bill."

More choices for consumers of electricity also means major changes for the big utilities, even if only a fraction of their current customers end up adopting the new-tech systems. The report says that in the northeastern United States, commercial load "defections" away from the traditional utility grid could total 140 million megawatt hours by 2030, or around $35 billion in annual electrical costs.

But RMI manager and report coauthor Leia Guccione says the changes aren't necessarily adversarial, pitting the old-school utilities against the new technology.

"Because these solar-plus-battery systems are grid-connected," she notes, "they can offer value and services back to the grid. We need not see them only as a threat."