House GOP's would-be speaker Kevin McCarthy faces month-long conservative test
Even after some major missteps, challenges from upstart conservatives and loud rumblings of discontent from Republicans overall, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy is still the most likely candidate to emerge as the House GOP's nominee for speaker.
That doesn't mean, however, that it will be easy for McCarthy to move from his current role as No. 2 Republican in the House to No. 1.
The House GOP conference votes by secret ballot on Thursday morning for their nominee. McCarthy faces challenges from House Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz of Utah and Rep. Daniel Webster of Florida. A bloc of about 40 conservatives -- known as the House Freedom Caucus -- plans to stick together and vote for Webster as outgoing Speaker John Boehner's replacement.
With 247 Republicans in the House, McCarthy doesn't need the House Freedom Caucus' support to win the GOP nomination for speaker. However, he will need the support of at least some Freedom Caucus members when the full House of Representatives votes for the new speaker on October 29. McCarthy needs at least 218 votes to be elected speaker, and he certainly shouldn't expect Democrats to help him out.
This means House conservatives have a full month to hold McCarthy's feet to the fire. By the end of that month, just days after being elected, the new speaker will have his conservative bonafides put to the test: On Nov. 5, Congress must raise the debt ceiling or risk letting the nation default on its loans.
Before then, conservatives will also be watching to see whether McCarthy backs efforts to pass a longterm highway bill, the reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank, and a government spending bill -- all issues where conservatives see opportunities for gaining more leverage against Democrats.
"Between now and October 29, who knows what happens," Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, leader of the House Freedom Caucus, told conservative radio host Sean Hannity on Wednesday. "Even Belichick doesn't script out the whole game."
Jordan suggested that "more people may get in the race" for speaker if McCarthy doesn't live up to conservative expectations as the GOP nominee. Alternatively, McCarthy and other House leaders may meet conservative demands to change House rules and institutions.
"If there isn't a group saying changes need to happen before we get that vote... then we'll never get those changes," Jordan said.
Chaffetz similarly told CBS News' Steven Portnoy that he's running for speaker because the House GOP conference needs a "fresh start."
"The idea of just promoting existing leadership is not very palatable to a lot of members," he said. "I think our conference wants a fresh start, I think the country wants a fresh start, and we better listen to those forces or they will run us right over."
As part of the House GOP's leadership team, McCarthy already had a strike against him with anti-establishment conservatives. However, he came under further scrutiny recently when he suggested in a televised interview that the House Republicans' Benghazi investigation is politically-motivated. McCarthy on Wednesday acknowledged that his comments about the Benghazi investigation were a mistake, but he insisted he could effectively serve as the most public face of the House GOP.
Suggesting that the Benghazi investigation merely gave the GOP a way to attack Hillary Clinton opened the door for conservative activists and pundits to campaign against him.
A vote for McCarthy as Speaker is the same as a vote for Boehner! Call your Rep and tell them to vote against him: (202) 224-3121
— Tea Party Patriots (@TPPatriots) October 7, 2015
It is going to be absolutely necessary to reject Kevin McCarthy as Speaker for Republicans to have any credibility taking on Hillary Clinton
— Amanda Carpenter (@amandacarpenter) October 5, 2015
It also opened the door for a full-scale Democratic attack.
Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter of New York took to the House floor on Wednesday to put forward a resolution to disband the Benghazi Committee. Citing McCarthy's remarks, she called it one of the longest running and least productive investigations in congressional history. Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson of Florida filed an ethics complaint McCarthy and Rep. Trey Gowdy -- the leader of the Benghazi committee -- for misappropriating taxpayer funds for political purposes. For her part, Clinton launched her first national campaign ad highlighting McCarthy's remarks.
If House Democrats wanted to make life truly difficult for McCarthy, they could vote on October 29 for Webster or Chaffetz. Asked about that strategy on Tuesday, Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Maryland, laughed and told reporters, "We are certainly thinking about all of these things."
More seriously, Hoyer said that he expects all the Democrats in the House to line up behind House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-California. "So the Republicans are going to have to decide, on their side, what to do," he said.
Hoyer also warned that Republicans need to take the debt ceiling deadline seriously.
"I talked to the president on Sunday... He says that's a real date," Hoyer said. "Let's not play chicken with November 5th. We ought to be acting this month on the extension of the debt."
Yet outgoing Speaker John Boehner suggested on Wednesday that the debt ceiling will be the next speaker's problem.
"I don't have any report on the debt ceiling," Boehner told reporters when asked whether he'd be able to take care of it before stepping down at the end of the month. "There's no agreement on how to do this. There are discussions about how to do it, but nothing else to report at this time."
And given the GOP's interest in a "fresh start," as Chaffetz put it, some conservative members are likely to demand further government spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Congress needs to approve a new government spending bill by Dec. 11 or risk letting the government shut down.