Early voting data indicates a surge in the Hispanic vote

Hispanic voters on Tuesday could have the power to decide the outcome of the presidential election, according to the New York Times.

Data collected from the early voting period suggests a surge in Hispanics turning out to vote could give Hillary Clinton an advantage over Donald Trump.

In Florida, for example, 15 percent of the people who voted early said they were Hispanic on their voter registration form, the report said. The Times noted that 12 percent of the final electorate in 2012 consisted of Hispanic voters.

More than 6.4 million people had cast ballots in Florida in the early voting period before Tuesday, the report said, which is already equal to 75 percent of the final turnout in 2012. Clinton’s campaign estimates that Hispanics voting in Florida is up 139 percent compared to 2012, according to Reuters. The Miami Herald said an analysis by Dan Smith, a political science professor at the University of Florida, found that through Saturday, 565,000 Hispanics voted early in Florida, which is a 100 percent increase over 2012.

CBS News’ Anthony Salvanto has noted that Hispanic turnout is surging because there are more new Hispanic voters participating in the election process. Twenty percent of the Hispanics who already voted before Election Day in Florida are new while only 12 percent of the early-voting whites in the state are new.

The Hispanic vote in Nevada could also help Clinton, according to the Times. Early voting turnout in some of the heavily Hispanic areas around Las Vegas has already surpassed 2012 levels, the report said.

It’s still too early to tell, however, whether Hispanic voters will really make a difference. Most states, the Times pointed out, don’t ask people about race and Hispanic origin on voter registration forms.

Polls conducted over the course of the election might have also underestimated Hispanic support, the Times said. The report said evidence suggests pollsters usually contact too many “well-assimilated, English-speaking, high-turnout Hispanic voters who live in less Hispanic areas” and those voters tend to be Republican, the report said. Polls, therefore, might not have captured the level of support for Clinton among Hispanics, the Times argued.