Does Clinton need superdelegates in 2016 more than Obama did in 2008?
Hillary Clinton will almost certainly clinch the Democratic nomination with the aid of superdelegates -- and it is not uncommon for a Democratic candidate to do so in a competitive late season primary. Barack Obama also needed a boost from superdelegates in 2008, though Clinton is relying slightly more on superdelegates than Mr. Obama did.
Who are the superdelegates? Since 1984, the Democratic Party has set aside seats at its convention for party leaders including Democratic members of Congress, governors, past presidents and members of the Democratic National Committee, giving these leaders a role in choosing the nominee. These delegates are commonly referred to as superdelegates.
Superdelegates, or unpledged delegates, serve by virtue of their party position or elected office. They are not bound by state primaries and caucuses and can back any candidate they prefer at the convention. They can also change their minds at any time. Superdelegates make up about 15 percent of the total number of Democratic delegates and 30 percent of the number needed to nominate.
According to CBS News estimates, Hillary Clinton now has 2,293 total delegates (including superdelegates), and is 90 delegates away from the magic number of 2,383. She is on track to clinch in early June, but will need these superdelegates to do it. Clinton has a 763-delegate lead over Bernie Sanders in total delegates, but much of that lead is due to her considerable advantage with superdelegates. Currently, Clinton has the backing of 525 superdelegates to Sanders' 39.
While most superdelegates are in Clinton's corner this year -- at least for now -- these delegates were more divided at this point in the 2008 campaign. According to CBS estimates, on May 23, 2008, Barack Obama had the backing of 310 superdelegates, compared to 277 for Clinton -- a difference of just 33 delegates between the two candidates. (The candidates were also closer in the pledged count too). Clinton started the 2008 primary season with a more than two to one advantage over Mr. Obama in superdelegates, but the Illinois senator narrowed the gap over the course of the campaign, something Sanders has yet to do.
To put him over the top and clinch the nomination, however, then-Sen. Obama needed the support of superdelegates. After the votes were counted and the delegates allocated in the last primary contests on June 3, 2008, then Sen. Obama had 2153 delegates, according to CBS News estimates (he needed 2,118 to clinch), including 390 superdelegates (more than 50 of these supers came out for Obama on June 3rd when it became apparent he would clinch).
On the last day of the primaries, 18 percent of Barack Obama's total delegates were superdelegates. Right now, superdelegates make up slightly more -- 22 percent -- of Clinton's current total. Then-Sen. Obama did have a majority -- 52 percent -- of the pledged delegates at that point. Clinton needs to win a third of the pledged delegates going forward to finish the primary season with a majority of the pledged delegates.
As Sanders looks to change the minds of superdelegates backing Clinton to come to his side, it may be a challenge. In 2008, when both the delegate race and the popular vote were closer, just about a dozen superdelegates switched from Clinton to Mr. Obama during the primary campaign. Instead, a number remained on the sidelines until it became clear who the nominee would be. It was when the primaries were over and Clinton suspended her campaign on June 7th that many of her superdelegates threw their support to Mr. Obama.