CBS News delegate estimate, heading into Kentucky and Oregon
THE DEMOCRATS
Heading into tonight's contests, CBS News estimates that Hillary Clinton now has 2,239 total delegates (including superdelegates who back her) or 94 percent of what's needed to clinch the nomination. She is on track to secure the nomination in early June, with the help of those superdelegates.
- Hillary Clinton goes all-in on Kentucky primary
- Clinton fights for Kentucky while Sanders expects to win Oregon
Clinton cannot reach the threshold tonight. She is 144 total delegates away from the magic number of 2,383. Kentucky has 55 delegates up from grabs and there are 61 at stake in Oregon, allocated proportionally.
Clinton needs to win about 14 percent of all delegates remaining (including superdelegates who haven't registered a choice) to clinch.
It would much harder for Clinton to secure the nomination without the help of superdelegates. She would need 74 percent of the remaining elected delegates in upcoming contests.
Bernie Sanders' path is narrow. He needs 87 percent of all remaining delegates (including supers) to secure the nomination at 2,383.
In order to overtake Clinton in the pledged delegate count only (which would be a political victory, but not sufficient for the nomination) Sanders would need to win 66 percent of the pledged delegates in the remaining contests. That is a greater rate than the 45 percent of pledged delegates in primaries and caucuses he has won so far.
THE REPUBLICANS
There are 28 Republican delegates in Oregon, awarded proportionally. The Republicans held their Kentucky caucuses on Mar. 5th and Trump was the winner.
CBS News estimates Trump has 1,133 total delegates and is 104 shy of the 1237 needed to nominate. He has 92 percent of the delegates he needs and is on pace to get a majority on or before June 7th.
Trump needs 23 percent of all delegates remaining to clinch.