5 things to watch for in the South Carolina Republican primary
South Carolina Republicans will cast their votes Saturday in the nation's first-in-the-South primary, with polls closing at 7 p.m. ET. Since New Hampshire's primary over a week ago, three GOP hopefuls have dropped out the White House race: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former tech executive Carly Fiorina, and ex-Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore. Now, the remaining candidates are vying to topple GOP front-runner Donald Trump, whose domination in New Hampshire has added momentum to his campaign in the Palmetto State.
Here are five things to watch for in the South Carolina race.
Does Trump win and by how much?
Nearly every poll has Trump ahead by double-digits over Cruz, though much is being made over a late poll from NBC/Wall Street Journal showing him up by only 5 points. How Trump does among evangelical voters (65 percent of 2012 S.C. GOP primary voters) and among very conservative voters (36 percent in 2012) will determine how well he does overall. As for what happens if he wins S.C.? Trump believes -- as do many political observers -- that he "could run the table" moving forward.
Can Cruz cruise past Trump?
Or is sinking to third place possible? Trump's nightmare scenario is seeing Cruz victorious in South Carolina, as he was in Iowa, winning evangelicals and those who describe themselves as very conservative. A win would give Cruz a huge boost heading into the southern state-heavy Super Tuesday contests on March 1; second place keeps the Trump vs. Cruz vs. anyone else storyline alive through that date. If Cruz slips to third, behind one of the establishment candidates (Bush, Kasich, Rubio), that would be a chink in his argument that he is the true conservative, the one-and-only challenger to Trump.
Does Rubio bounce back from N.H.?
By all accounts Rubio has had a great 10 days in S.C. following his fifth-place finish in N.H.: His CBS News debate performance was widely praised, and he managed to wrest popular Gov. Nikki Haley's endorsement from rival Bush. Can he capitalize on these seemingly positive developments? Will he set himself apart from Bush and Kasich Saturday night so he can claim to be the sole anti-Trump, anti-Cruz alternative? Second or a solid third place would give him a huge boost.
Is this do-or-die for Bush?
Yes. He pulled out all the stops by bringing his brother, former President George W. Bush, and his mother Barbara to S.C. to campaign for him. He hung on in N.H. by beating a weakened Rubio, but anything lower than a very close fourth place finish will spur his donors and supporters to jump ship fast.
What about Kasich, Carson?
By telegraphing a longer game by visiting Michigan and Virginia while everyone else was in S.C., Kasich has lowered expectations in the Palmetto State. "All the votes I was going to get in South Carolina you could have put in a Volkswagen. Now maybe you can put them in a van," he said in Columbia, S.C., Friday. "That beats expectations." Anything above fifth place will help him in the more middle-of-the-road northern/northeastern states that begin voting in March.
As for Carson, he's been bringing up the rear in most of the S.C. polls, and he had already cut over half his campaign staff. The real questions are: 1) how many votes does he siphon from Cruz, and 2) how much longer is he in the race?