2016 Republican field changes as Ryan drops, Romney near confirming

The list of potential 2016 Republican candidates has changed again this week as Rep. Paul Ryan confirmed he will not join his colleagues in a run for president, instead focusing on his role as chairman of Ways and Means Committee. His former running mate on the other hand, Mitt Romney, may be close to confirming his name on the ballot.

"The people I've talked to say yes, this is for real, and Republicans have rewarded people for doing this in the past," Republican strategist and CBS News contributor Frank Luntz said Tuesday on "CBS This Morning." "Richard Nixon was unable to win in 1960 -- they renominated him in 1968. Ronald Reagan in 1976 almost won the nomination -- he comes back in 1980. George Herbert Walker Bush -- 1980 to '88."

Romney hasn't been clear in the past though. In October, he told CBS News Congressional Correspondent Nancy Cordes, "I'm not running."

If he does confirm the decision, Luntz said he will have to address three areas that left supporters disappointed with a loss in 2012.

"First, on election night, they thought he was going to win. Paul Ryan thought he was going to win. What was wrong with his staff? With the input he was getting that he actually thought he was going to be successful, he's got to explain that," Luntz said.

As CBS News correspondent Jan Crawford reported in November 2012, Romney's team was shocked by the loss. They said his campaign became aware of problems on the afternoon of Election Day, when states started reporting huge turnout in areas favorable to President Obama.

In Ohio, for example, Romney's team missed the mark in several key areas; primarily underestimating African-American voter turnout and devaluing the need to implement neighborhood offices in the state.

"Second he's got to explain why he didn't defend himself," Luntz said. "He never talked about private equity, he never talked about jobs he created, he's going to have to do a better job there."

In May 2012, President Obama hit Romney with a blow criticizing his role as the head of Bain Capital. The campaign not only painted Romney as a corporate giant and job killer, but also showed that Obama, despite previous thought, was willing to talk about the economy.

"And perhaps third and most important, Barack Obama at the time, he had a 45 percent job approval rating," Luntz said. "No one's ever been reelected with numbers that low."

Luntz said Romney had his best chance to win in 2012 and will have to prove how 2016 will be different.

In addition to Romney, eyes are on both Gov. Chris Christie and Jeb Bush.

"You can't count any of them out because all three of them have access to tens of millions of dollars," Luntz said.

Luntz also has his eyes on Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. In November, just over a week after Republicans took control of the Senate and tightened their hold on the House, Paul met with his team to prepare for a 2016 bid.

"He will do much better with 18 to 25 year olds because of his Libertarian streak," Luntz said.

For a dark horse in the race, Luntz said he's watching Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder. In March, his state ranked first in the U.S. for the most significant recovery following the great recession and hit the lowest unemployment rate in six years.

Luntz also noted Rick Perry's desire to run again and said while he has a great record in Texas, he will have to overcome his performances in debates.

Despite expectations, Luntz doubted that either Elizabeth Warren or Marco Rubio will add their name on the ballot.

"In the testing that we do, Elizabeth Warren is the best communicator of the Democrats and Rubio is the best communicator on the Republican side, but I question whether either of them are going to run," Luntz said. "How do you raise money when Jeb Bush was your governor and how do you run when Jeb essentially was your godfather in politics? Jeb got Marco started."