The 7 most critical economic questions for 2015

When 2015 is ushered in, many Americans will be hoping it brings a "cup of kindness."

While 2014 has proven to be successful for many -- especially the top 1 percent of America's earners -- recent economic improvements haven't reached everyone. It's the type of year when some might want to change "Auld Lang Syne" to "surely you'll buy your pint cup/but sadly I can't afford mine."

Hourly wages grew about 2 percent this year, barely head of inflation, while the federal minimum wage remains at $7.25 per hour. That's coming off some rough post-recession years, with virtually no change in the country's median wealth from 2010 to 2013. For many Americans, that means their daily life isn't necessarily reflecting an improvement, making the upbeat economic headlines feel like punchlines to someone else's inside joke.

When the ball drops at midnight on Wednesday, millions of workers will likely be wishing that 2015 brings real economic improvement. For some, that would mean solid wage gains, following years of stagnation. For others, continued low oil prices could provide relief, especially for workers and families who shell out every week to fill up their tanks for their work commutes.

One underlying threat to America's economic health is the rising inequality of wealth and income that's been the hallmark of the post-recession years. With the top 1 percent gaining most of the benefits from the recovery, that has everyone from the upper middle class to the working poor feeling battered.

The top 1 percent now take home 20 percent of all pretax income, or more than double their share in 1980. Meanwhile, the 99 percent saw their income rise by an annual growth rate of only 0.6 percent, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said earlier this year.

The disparity between the top 1 percent and the rest of the nation recently spurred Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen to express concern about the trend. Rising costs for higher education and a decline in small-business creation is threatening economic opportunity, she said.

At the same time, Americans this year ranked inequality as the greatest threat to the world today, according to a Pew Research survey.

Whether 2015 becomes the year the economic recovery reaches all income levels is up for debate, but it's clear that the key pieces of the American economy -- from wage growth to GDP -- need to be firing in order to have any hope at all.

Here are the top seven questions facing the U.S. economy as 2015 gets underway.

Will 2015 be the best year yet for GDP growth in the recovery?
The U.S. economy will likely grow at a roughly 3 percent rate in 2015, according to Goldman Sachs (GS) economists. That would make the year's annual economic growth the strongest since 2005, or before the housing market collapsed and the Great Recession started in 2008.

Goldman's growth is a "slight acceleration" from the 2.7 percent rate recorded over the past four quarters, the research note added. "The key reason for optimism on growth is that the domestic strengths of the US economy should outweigh the potential drag from weakness in global demand and the appreciation of the US dollar," the economists added. The stronger economic growth will help stimulate the job market, they added.

And that leads to the next question.

Will the trend toward more job-creation continue?
One positive trend in 2014 was the gradually shrinking unemployment rate, which has settled at 5.8 percent for October and November, down from about 7 percent a year earlier.

But the real pain is felt by both the long-term unemployed, who are counted at 2.8 million people, and certain groups where the unemployment rate is higher, such as young workers. Both groups may see help next year, with a strong U.S. economy sparking employers to add more jobs.

The country may add about 230,000 jobs per month on average in 2015, PNC Financial Services Group senior economist Gus Faucher notes.

Will wages finally show robust growth?
Stagnant wages have been a trademark of the post-recession years, hampering many Americans' abilities to keep up with bills and savings.

Despite the forecast for stronger economic growth and job creation, the outlook for wages remains murky. U.S. workers may see a median base salary boost of 3 percent next year, according to a survey from WorldatWork. That may sound impressive, but it's still below prerecession levels.

Wage growth likely won't return to a "normal" rate of 3 percent to 4 percent until after 2016, thanks to higher-than-normal unemployment when adding in the long-term unemployed and those who are working part-time because of economic reasons, Goldman Sachs economists noted.

On the other hand, some of the least-paid workers may get a break next year. Twenty states will raise their minimum wages in 2015, lifting the base pay for workers in states ranging from Florida to Ohio. Walmart (WMT), the country's largest private employer, will raise wages in about one-third of its U.S. locations to keep up with state regulations.

Will oil prices stay low?
Falling oil prices have been a boon to American families, providing what amounts to a tax cut of $100 billion to $125 billion, according to Goldman Sachs. Each household could save as much as $750 annually, assuming prices remain lower.

And they do appear to be "here to stay," according to a report from Citibank's (C) research department. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has cut its crude price forecasts by $15 a barrel for next year, pegging its price at about $68 instead of a previous forecast for more than $83. The EIA forecasts gasoline to sell for an average of about $2.60 a gallon next year.

While that will put real dollars back into the pockets of many American workers, it comes with a downside: the potential for job losses in the oil extraction industry. That could reduce employment in states such as North Dakota and Texas.

Will inflation remain low in 2015?
Given most workers' subpar wage growth, the country's low inflation rate has been one saving grace. If rates were higher, any income gains could be easily eaten up by higher costs at the grocery store or gas pump.

Thanks to lower oil prices, inflation is easing off even more. That has prompted the Federal Reserve to sharply cut its forecast. Instead of predicting inflation of between 1.6 percent to 1.9 percent next year, the Fed is now pegging it at 1 percent to 1.6 percent.

Of course, inflation undershooting the Fed's 2 percent target is also a symptom of a sluggish economy. Modestly rising prices mean more revenue for companies, which can encourage hiring. The problem is when inflation runs ahead of wage growth.

Will home prices continue to rebound?
All signals point to "yes." Prices may end 2014 on a "strong note" and "accelerate into 2015," according to David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Home prices continued to rise in October, although the month's 4.5 percent year-over-year increase represents the 11th straight month of slowing growth for the benchmark S&P/Case Shiller index.

One benefit to the housing market has been record-low mortgage rates. But with the Fed potentially raising rates next year, those could inch up. Higher rates could make housing prices less affordable to some buyers. And along those lines ...

When will the Fed raise interest rates in 2015?
Pegging when the central bank will raise rates has been a guessing game this year, but many economists now believe the hike won't come until the middle of 2015, or even later if the economy shows signs of faltering.

"Judging from the tone of Fed commentary in recent months, Fed officials seem to be targeting the June meeting for the first rate hike," Goldman Sachs economists wrote. Still, they added that their confidence about that prediction "is not high," and that September could mark the next rate hike instead. The Fed's decision will depend on a number of factors listed above, ranging from inflation to wage growth.

"If core inflation fell just a few tenths further than we forecast and wage growth did not accelerate at all, the FOMC might worry that an early hike might destabilize inflation expectations, even if the economy was still growing at a brisk pace," the report noted. "If so, the committee would probably want to take out some insurance by shifting the liftoff date into 2016."