How difficult is weather forecasting in the Midwest? NWS data has the answer.
MINNEAPOLIS — Trying to plan for the weather is a frustration that knows no borders. However, new data from the National Weather Service shows that some states in the U.S. can more easily come up with accurate seven-day forecasts than others.
Coastal cities — such as those in states like Florida, Louisiana, California and parts of Texas — have a far more accurate weather forecast due to the ocean. The ocean absorbs the sun's warmth during the day and gradually releases it over time, functioning as a natural thermal regulator.
Arid conditions in southwest deserts function in a similar way, discouraging the formation of strong weather systems thus making the ability to predict the forecast much more accurate.
Unfortunately, for states in the middle of the country, we don't have these natural weather deterrents which means forecasting can be much less predictable.
According to the NWS, states in the Great Plains can only accurately forecast no more than two days out, making it one of the most unpredictable areas for weather in the country.
In Minnesota, even that number fluctuates depending upon where in the state you live.
According to a forecast accuracy tool, places like Bemidji and Rochester can only accurately forecast the weather up to one day out with warmer months being easier to predict than colder months.
In Minneapolis or St. Paul, the forecast can be accurate up to two days out with warm and cold months being equally predictable.
WCCO meteorologist Adam Del Rosso says that despite this new data, it's important to keep in mind that forecasting the weather is an incredibly complex process. However, he did say, "As we get more and better tools in our forecasting toolbox, the overall accuracy of forecasts continues to increase everywhere."
Florida traditionally has the highest forecasting accuracy, with forecasts being able to look up to seven days out. The southwest region of the U.S. has a forecasting accuracy up to five or six days out. The east coast is only accurate up to three or four days out.