Vikings' expectations in 2024 ride on quarterback Sam Darnold's shoulders
MINNEAPOLIS — Expectations for the 2024 Vikings' season are not too high. The win total sits at 6.5 games from the Vegas oddsmakers. Both of those things have to do with new quarterback Sam Darnold.
The Vikings optimist says, "Darnold is going to resurrect his career, throwing to Justin Jefferson and running Kevin O'Connell's offense."
Darnold's past struggles have been well illustrated this offseason, as have the reasons he could build himself back up. The optimist says Darnold could have a season like those in recent years from the Bucs' Baker Mayfield and Seahawks' Geno Smith.
This is a possibility.
The team around Darnold is much better than when he was the third overall pick for the New York Jets and got benched by the Carolina Panthers.
Darnold's not the first quarterback in recent memory to struggle with those teams.
Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has come through on his goal of getting younger and building a team where a new quarterback could step in and be successful right away.
The continuity on the offensive line is a strong point. Questions on the interior remain, but tackles Brian O'Neill and Christian Darrisaw are among the best duos in the league.
The team has ample offensive weapons and added another one this offseason in running back Aaron Jones.
For Darnold to succeed, first and foremost, the Vikings' abysmal running game from last season needs to improve drastically. Out goes power runner Alexander Mattison and in comes speed and finesse. The Vikings will try and get Jones outside and in space — especially this week, because the New York Giants' front is the strength of their team.
"I feel like every year, I'm getting better and better, and last year I felt like I was just about to start entering my prime," said Jones, whose 2023 season with Green Bay was limited to 11 games because of hamstring and knee injuries.
The Vikings cannot put Darnold behind the chains. O'Connell needs to run at a higher clip than he has in his first two seasons. To be effective, the team must become a little bit more boring on offense. No one will care if the offense isn't flashy as long as the scoreboard shows a lead.
To do this, Darnold needs to become a game manager. I'm not quite sure when this turned into a negative connotation, it shouldn't be for non-elite quarterbacks. Don't turn the ball over, and let the defense do its thing under coordinator Brian Flores.
The defense will be good.
The signing of former All-Pro corner Stephon Gilmore a few weeks ago signaled a few things: the team is aware of its little depth at corner, and maybe a bit more importantly, Adofo-Mensah thinks the Vikings can compete this year.
Why else pay $7 million for Gilmore?
The secondary is more experienced than a season ago.
Adofo-Mensah also signed impactful starters on defense in linebackers Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel. Bring in rusher Jonathan Greenard and trade up to get one of the best in the draft, Dallas Turner — not a bad front seven when you have dynamite second-year linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. in the mix, too.
It will not be easy to replace star Danielle Hunter's production — 16.5 sacks last year. But this new trio of rushers should wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks in Flores' blitz-heavy scheme.
The hope is that with another year in Flores' system, and a little more man coverage with a veteran trio of Gilmore, Byron Murphy Jr., and Shaq Griffin, the team will be able to get pressure on the quarterback because they can send more rushers, knowing a deep ball won't hurt them over the top.
The bigger question is in the middle of the line. The team has not been stout there since they had Linval Joseph. This year's group will likely be OK against the run, but won't get much pressure from the interior. It'll be interesting to watch former first-round pick Jerry Tillery in purple. He's huge but hasn't seen much success at this level.
Keep an eye on undrafted rookie free agent Taki Taimani, too. He's apparently had an impressive camp and plays through the whistle.
If the rushers can win on the outside, that'll make all the difference. That group is good enough to do so.
The key to the Vikings this year is simple. Play relatively boring on offense to limit Darnold's turnover proficiency. The optimist says he's turned the ball over so much as a product of the team around him. This could have happened because his teams were constantly losing, and he took chances down the field because of the score. He can't do that in Minnesota. That's not what a game manager does. He needs to let the defense, likely the strength of this club, win games.
Darnold, with O'Connell's help, can be successful. The team around him is on the very front end of what looks to be a promising future. Let's see what Darnold can do to help.