Tommies Blog: St. Thomas Hosts Concordia Facing A Must-Win
MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) – The St. Thomas football program is at a crossroads as it heads into its penultimate home game Saturday against Concordia (Moorhead).
The Tommies are 5-2 overall, 3-2 in the MIAC and for the first time since 2009, Glenn Caruso's program is on the outside looking in at the national polls. Until this week, St. Thomas had been one of the top 25 teams in the country for 72 straight weeks.
As it stands now, the Tommies are also on the outside looking in at the NCAA Playoffs picture. Bethel is undefeated after beating St. Thomas 35-24 last week with games left at Gustavus, at St. John's and home against Augsburg. Concordia is second in the MIAC at 5-1 and has just Gustavus left after Saturday's game at St. Thomas.
If the Tommies lose to the Cobbers Saturday, they're eliminated from any playoff consideration and will have had their first three-loss season since Caruso's first year at St. Thomas, when 7-3 was a successful season. The Tommies have to beat Concordia, Carleton and Gustavus to have any shot at a playoff bid, though that's slim at best and fading quickly.
St. Thomas faced a 21-0 halftime deficit at Bethel last Saturday and rallied in the third quarter to get within 21-14. The Tommies had the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie it, but had to settle for a field goal to get within 28-24. Bethel scored with one second left in regulation to seal the victory.
Perhaps more concerning is that for the second time this season, Caruso had to pull his starting quarterback. Matt O'Connell threw for just 95 yards and two interceptions in the first half before being pulled. John Gould played in relief, throwing for 121 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.
Bethel turned all three of the Tommies' interceptions into 21 points. The 35 points scored by Bethel is the most a St. Thomas squad has given up in Caruso's coaching tenure thus far. It's an alarming trend with a Cobbers defense coming in that has seven interceptions on the season.
Concordia's defense is an engine that doesn't give up much in general. The Cobbers outscore their opponents by a 34-14 average and their defense allows about 292 yards in total offense per game, including about 94 rushing yards. Erik Bye and Levi Hintermeister lead that defense with 42 tackles each, while Hintermeister has 19 solo tackles. Nate Adams has four sacks on the season, and Christian Erickson leads a talented secondary with three interceptions. It'll be a great test for the St. Thomas offense, which is scoring about 40 points per game and running for more than 220. The Tommies are averaging nearly 483 yards of total offense per game, but turnovers have been a killer. They've had six fumbles lost and eight interceptions.
Concordia's offense is always a headache for opposing coaches and coordinators, and this year isn't any different. The Cobbers feature plenty of depth for a team that's scoring about 34 points per game. They don't have a 100-yard rusher or a 300-yard passer. Quarterback Griffin Neal is throwing for about 209 yards per game with 12 touchdowns. His favorite target is Joe Baune, who averages 65 yards receiving per game and has eight touchdowns.
But it's the Cobbers run game that keeps coaches up at night. They run for nearly 240 yards per game, and Neal is their second-leading rusher at 45 yards per game with six touchdowns. Alex McLean leads Concordia in rushing at 56.5 yards per game with eight touchdowns. They have four or five capable rushers, and they're not afraid to use them all. St. Thomas's defense is allowing about 19 points per game on average and 117 yards rushing per game, so it should get a great test from the Cobbers balanced attack.
Concordia enters the game having won three straight since losing to Bethel. The Cobbers beat Hamline 42-7 last week.
Saturday is a must-win for St. Thomas for several reasons. The Tommies need to cling to the slim hope they have of reaching the postseason. They also want to avoid their first three-loss season in six years and they're hoping to build for the future.
They key question for the Tommies is who will play quarterback? For the second time this year, Gould gave St. Thomas a spark after replacing O'Connell, and both times it was in their biggest game of the year. But the Tommies can't afford another slip-up behind center, so it will be interesting and telling to see who Caruso chooses to start. It's a huge game for both teams as Concordia looks to stay right behind Bethel in the MIAC, while the Tommies are fighting for their season.
Tune into WCCO Radio 830 AM at about 1 p.m. Saturday as Dave Lee will have the play-by-play. Eric Nelson and Fritz Waldvogel will have the color commentary.