Spring flooding risk expected to increase as more snow falls, higher temps near
By WCCO Meteorologist Joseph Dames
MINNEAPOLIS -- More than six feet of snow has already fallen this winter and all that water has got to go somewhere when we thaw.
NEXT Weather Meteorologist Joseph Dames explains what that means for our risk of spring flooding.
"It does look like we will see some sort of spring flooding this year just based on how much snow we've got on the ground," hydrologist Craig Schmidt said.
And as more snow arrives and spring temperatures near, the flooding risk is expected to increase.
"We've got maybe two to three inches of more water out there in most of the area than we have had the last few years and that we usually have," Schmidt said. "So there is certainly more fuel to the spring flood threat than we've had in a while."
The forecast from NOAA says there is over a 50% chance of exceeding a moderate flood for over 10 sites in Minnesota this spring, including the Mississippi in St. Paul and the St. Croix in Stillwater.
And this threat isn't just confined to the major rivers.
"It's basically in this type of situation where the snowpack is so widespread, it's pretty much all of our main stem rivers and the tributaries leading into them," Schmidt explained.
As more water shows up, the concern remains -- what would it take to avoid a spring flood?
"A perfect melt would be about three weeks of temperatures going up into the 40s during the day and dropping down just below freezing at night to slow everything back down again until we end up with what we call an orderly melt," Schmidt said. "A little bit melts every day and just runs off and soaks in and little to rain at that time."
Hydrologists say the worst outcome would be more snow this month and a swift April warm-up with heavy rain.
NOAA will have a spring outlook update Thursday as new numbers come in from our recent snow event.