Reports: DFL Gov. Walz raised more money than GOP challenger Scott Jensen in first half of year
ST. PAUL, Minn. -- New state campaign finance data published Tuesday shows DFL Gov. Tim Walz outraised Republican challenger Dr. Scott Jensen in the first half of this year.
The Walz campaign brought in $2.66 million from January first through July 18, while Jensen raised $1.02 million in that same period, according to the pre-primary reports. Democrats also raised more money in other races for constitutional offices, like attorney general and secretary of state.
But whoever wins the governor's office will rely on the legislature to pass policies he ran on, and what party has power in St. Paul is in play this fall. Every single seat in the legislature is on the ballot because of redistricting, which changed the political map, and Republicans and Democrats are angling to take total control of the State Capitol.
The GOP has a majority in the Senate, while the DFL has a majority in the House, leaving Minnesota only one of two statehouses in the country that is divided. Nonpartisan political forecasters at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics ranks both the Minnesota House and Senate in a list of 10 chambers that are the most competitive this fall -- most of them held by Democrats, "putting the party on defense," the analysis says.
The Minnesota House specifically is a toss-up, according to Center for Politics Sabato's Crystal Ball rating.
"Both of its chambers should be in play this year, but given the national political environment, it would be easier for the GOP to consolidate power by flipping the House than for the Democrats to do it by flipping the Senate," wrote contributor Louis Jacobson in a May analysis. "A key battlefield could be the Twin Cities suburbs, where Democratic gains in recent cycles could be whittled back."
Republicans nationally are in a good position as midterms generally favor the party that is not in the White House.
"We can argue about are [Democrats] responsible or not for gas prices, food prices, shortages, workforce shortages all of that, but they are going to be held accountable by the voters. That's just how it works," said Amy Koch, a political strategist and former Republican majority leader in the Minnesota Senate.
Minnesota House Democrats have a cash advantage over House Republicans with more than $2.2 million on hand, according to the latest campaign finance reports. House Speaker Melissa Hortman said in a statement that the latest fundraising numbers are a record.
"There is incredible energy supporting DFL candidates for the Minnesota House this cycle," she said in part. "You can see this enthusiasm in our record-breaking fundraising numbers -- in both total raised and cash on hand, we have never been in a stronger position at this point in any cycle."
Why does having the majority matter?
Whichever party is in power steers the ship in the chamber, including what legislation will advance there.
"Everyone gets excited about DC races, but honestly the statehouse races matter a lot more for our lives," Koch said. "You run the committees and the committees get to decide what's on the agenda. There could be some issue that's really hot and a committee chair can stuff that bill in a drawer and not hear it."
Abou Amara, an attorney and former top aide to House Democrats, agreed, adding that policy at the State Capitol is going to "impact your life in the most direct and profound way."
"More folks are going to know Tim Walz than maybe their local representative, but what Tim Walz can get done is entirely dependent upon who is in control of that legislature," Amara said.
He also underscored that turnout for legislative races is crucial because these races are often close -- just a couple hundred of votes can tip the scale in a race.
"It's going to come down to hyper-local races and small margins," Koch said. "In 2014, if I remember right, the Democrats lost the state House by a cumulative 12,000 votes."
Amara acknowledges that Democrats face headwinds this cycle in a political environment that is advantageous to Republicans, but he believes the DFL is in a strong fundraising position and can stem some of the losses.
Republicans haven't won a statewide office since 2006. The last time there was a trifecta -- one party controls the House, Senate and the governor's office -- was in 2012 with total DFL control.