When will Minnesota get its first significant snowfall of the season? A look at past winters.
MINNEAPOLIS — We're nearly midway through November and scant snowflakes have reached the ground in Minnesota, which has many of the state's residents wondering when they'll need to break out the shovel or snowblower.
First, let's define what significant snowfall is. The National Weather Service Twin Cities' threshold for issuing a winter storm watch or warning is 6 inches of snow within 48 hours. WCCO's NEXT Weather team generally defines it similarly.
Minnesota's average first 6-inch snowfall is Jan. 8. The earliest on record is Oct. 20, which occurred in 2020, while the latest happened on April 20, 1893.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's winter outlook forecasts a colder and snowier than average season for Minnesota this winter. Cool ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean — a pattern called La Niña — tend to bring this type of weather to the Upper Midwest during meteorological winter, which runs from December through February.
Not all La Niña winters play out that way, however. Here's a look at the first significant snowfall in some La Niña years similar to this one.
- 2022-2023: Nov. 29
- 2017-2018: Jan. 22
- 2011-2012: No storm over 6 inches
- 2008-2009: Feb. 26
- 2005-2006: Mar. 13
- 2000-2001: Dec. 16
- 1995-1996: Dec. 8
These numbers show there isn't a strong correlation between La Niña and when the first big snowfall arrives.
The state did see some snowfall on Halloween this year, but nothing close to significant. Less than a quarter inch was recorded in the Twin Cities.
A system arriving early next week has the potential to bring snow showers, though current modeling, with a lot of uncertainty, shows well below 6 inches falling in the metro.