DFL incumbent increases margin of victory by one vote in close state House race, further challenges likely
SHAKOPEE, Minn. — Incumbent DFL Rep. Brad Tabke increased his margin of victory by one vote, which brings his total lead to 15 votes, according to the preliminary results from a recount Thursday of his state House district covering Shakopee.
But the election is likely far from over.
The race between him and GOP challenger Aaron Paul in House District 54A is the closest in the state and its outcome has outsize influence in determining the balance of power in the chamber. Tabke's victory puts the House at a 67-67 tie between Republicans and Democrats, prompting leaders to explore a power-shoring agreement. But if Paul prevailed, it would give the Republicans a one-seat majority.
The county canvassing board will have to certify the results—and make a determination on four challenged ballots—at its Monday meeting. Then candidates have seven days to contest the election results in court, which could further prolong the process.
The margin on Election Day was 14 votes, which was enough to trigger a taxpayer-funded recount; after Thursday, his lead widened to 15. Election judges on Thursday hand counted each of the 22,000 ballots precinct by precinct. In the room, there was an equal number of representatives for both parties and attorneys who observed the count and could challenge certain ballots for "under votes" or "over votes" based on how someone marked their ballot.
In a statement Friday, Tabke declared victory, despite the possibility of action in court.
"Over the last 15 days, many people in Scott County and Shakopee have worked hard to make sure every ballot was counted, and every voter's voice was heard. I thank all of them for their work and dedication to keeping our elections fair and free," he said. "These results only affirm how committed I am to our incredible, diverse community. We will continue working together to make progress for Shakopee's working families, seniors, and small businesses."
But Republicans worry every voter's voice wasn't heard, as questions and concerns swirl about potential outstanding ballots. Julie Hanson, elections manager, identified a discrepancy of 21 more absentee voting records than the number of ballots actually counted in Shakopee. That's ignited intense scrutiny and prompted calls for more transparency.
Scott County official say there is an ongoing investigation about what happened. Hanson did not share any more details Thursday.
"I don't have a comment on that today. What I can tell you is we are still looking into that. We are still investigating—that is still in process," Hanson told reporters. "When we determine what the outcome is of that, if we can determine that, we will absolutely release that when we know."
A lawsuit is likely looming. House Republican Leader Lisa Demuth said in a statement that her caucus would pursue "every legal option available" to "ensure the integrity of results in District 54A."
"While the recount has concluded, serious questions still remain about the 21 ballots that remain unaccounted for," Demuth wrote. "With the recount results showing a final margin smaller than the number of potentially missing ballots, it is impossible to certify the election unless or until Scott County can determine what happened, prove chain of custody if the ballots are located, and guarantee that there was not malicious activity that led to 20 ballots being removed or destroyed."
Reid LeBeau, the attorney for the House Republicans campaign, told WCCO the recount Thursday went as he expected — both candidates added more votes to their totals, though Tabke netted one more than his initial margin of victory. In recent recounts, the winner as determined by unofficial results on Election Day ultimately still prevailed, according to a list compiled the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library.
LeBeau said he's been a part of many recounts, but has never seen the type of ballot discrepancy at issue in Scott County.
"It should be concerning, I think, to everyone that there are votes that are not only missing, but in this case, there are votes that are missing that will decide who holds this seat," he said. "I think there are a lot of questions to be answered. We certainly have a lot of them, and we intend to aggressively pursue the answers to those questions and relief from the court as appropriate."
State law says an election contest may be brought "over an irregularity in the conduct of an election or canvass of votes" and "over the question of who received the largest number of votes legally cast." If a court decides that "a serious and material defect in the ballots used changed the outcome of the election," there will be a new election, the law says.
The Scott County canvassing board is expected to certify the results Monday afternoon.
Next week, there will also be a recount in House District 14B in Sherburne County, where DFL Rep. Dan Wolgamott leads GOP candidate Sue Ek by 191 votes. There was an error uploading the results to the secretary of state's website, county officials said, that prompted questions.