Voters linked to missing ballots testify as election contest for Shakopee state House seat ends
SHAKOPEE, Minn. — Six voters linked to the missing ballots at the center of the election contest in a south metro Minnesota House race testified on Tuesday that they voted for DFL incumbent Rep. Brad Tabke, who said that evidence left no doubt that he is the winner of the close race.
Tabke defeated GOP challenger Aaron Paul by 14 votes in House District 54A on Election Day, which was later confirmed by a recount. But at issue were 21 ballots that were unaccounted for — a number that exceeds his margin of victory. An investigation determined 20 of them, which came from one single precinct, were likely tossed in the trash.
Paul filed an election contest because of those outstanding ballots and wants a new election. The trial — for which there is no jury, only a judge who ultimately makes a decision — lasted two days and ended on Tuesday.
The outcome could determine the balance of power in the Minnesota House, which stands at a tie with Tabke's victory. If Paul prevailed, Republicans would have a one-seat majority.
Over the two days, attorneys for both candidates brought forward witnesses, including voters identified as those who filled out the absentee ballots that were not counted. Under oath, six said on Monday they voted for Paul, while on Tuesday another six said they voted for Tabke.
All of their identities are under seal and they were not named in the courtroom.
"The main question was that nothing in those 20 ballots would change where we're at today — would not change the outcome of the election. And we've unequivocally got that understanding," Tabke told reporters after the trial ended.
Voters for Paul took the stand on Monday and said they were "upset" and felt "robbed" because their ballots were erroneously discarded in a manner the elections administrator testified was in violation of their policy for handling absentee ballots.
On Tuesday, Tabke's voters were in focus. His attorney, David Zoll, also called a University of Minnesota statistician to the stand who detailed a model he created that offered different scenarios for the distribution of the outstanding ballots, which showed the probability of who won the election if Paul received all of those votes or some of those votes.
"If Tabke receives an additional four votes, that puts the net difference at 18. But there would be only 16 votes remaining, leaving Paul no way to catch up," said Aaron Rendahl, associate professor of statistics and Informatics at the University of Minnesota's veterinary school.
Reid LeBeau, the attorney for Paul, called a rebuttal witness in Thomas Brunell, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Dallas, who said he had "specific critiques" about Rendahl's statistical analysis, including that its assumptions were wrong because "early voters tend to be different than Election Day voters."
LeBeau took aim at the statistical approach in his opening statements on Monday.
"Contestee will argue for a dangerous precedent of where statistical models take the place of ballots cast," he said.
Both attorneys have to file additional documents with the court with deadlines before and after Christmas, so it is unlikely that the judge will make a decision before the new year. She will also send a report to the legislature with her conclusions by the first day of the legislative session, which is January 14.
There is a separate election contest challenging the residency of a DFL candidate in another metro district that could have a similar impact on the make-up of the House.
If there is a special election for both or either of the seats, that would likely happen while the legislature has already convened for the 2025 session.