Maps show historical probability of getting a white Christmas in Minnesota
MINNEAPOLIS — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released new data on Friday showing the historical probability for snowfall on Christmas this year, and if you're looking only at history, the odds feel pretty good.
An interactive map on NOAA's website shows that places in northern Minnesota like Leech Lake, Grand Rapids and Cloquet have over a 90% chance of seeing at least an inch of snow on Christmas. But places even as far south as Winnebago, Owatonna and the Twin Cities have over a 70% chance of snow on Christmas.
Other areas that could be hit with Christmas snowfall includes Alaska, Maine, upstate New York, Idaho and parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
A decrease in snow in recent trends
This is an interesting development considering there's been an overall warming trend throughout the state since 1969.
WCCO meteorologist Mike Augustyniak also points out that during this same time period, there's been a very slight — probably not meaningful — downward trend in the snow depth on Christmas morning in the Twin Cities and Duluth.
Augustyniak also says that it's hard to really establish a trend for Christmas day snowfall as there aren't a lot of sample points.
For Minnesota specifically, areas like Duluth and the Twin Cities have seen everything from no snowfall on Christmas to one or one and a half feet of snow in just the past five years alone.
What does this mean for Minnesota in 2024?
According to Climate Central, winter is the fastest warming season in the U.S. Warmer winter air can hold more moisture, and whether or not that moisture is expelled as rain or snow depends on the local temperatures.
Fewer days without freezing temperatures raise the likelihood that the moisture will fall as rain, not snow.
However, for places like Minnesota, snow and other winter activities play a huge role in the state's economy.
In an article written by two economic analysts from the University of Minnesota, the tourism industry brings in billions of dollars yearly into Minnesota — $22.8 billion in fact.
One of the analysts, Brigid Tuck, writes, "Generally speaking, overnight visitors to a Minnesota community spend $140 to $150 every day of their stay. That money ripples through the community in many ways. This year, some of that money that starts with activities like snowmobiling, skiing and ice-fishing won't be there."