Harris leads Trump by 4.7 points in Minnesota, polling averages show
CHASKA, Minn. — No Republican candidate for president has won Minnesota since 1972.
Polling averages show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 4.7 percentage points, according to Real Clear Politics, which indicates that that streak may continue this year.
But Trump came within striking distance in 2016, narrowly losing by 1.5 points to Hillary Clinton and transformed the map, flipping rural counties that voted for President Barack Obama in 2012 in his favor, mirroring similar trends across the country.
President Biden then won by seven points four years later, though the county-by-county breakdown was mostly unchanged.
"In Minnesota, Donald Trump and his campaigns coincided with a very sharp partisan regional polarization," said Larry Jacobs, a political scientist at the University of Minnesota. "We didn't see it as sharply before Donald Trump."
The Twin Cities suburbs, Jacobs said, remain a key battleground. In 2020. Trump narrowed his margin of victory in a place like Carver County, while Democrats performed much better in 2020 in Dakota compared to 2016.
A recent survey by MinnPost shows Trump dominates Greater Minnesota and Harris has a substantial lead in Minneapolis and St. Paul. But it's in the metro area where the vice president is only slightly by three percentage points.
"One question for instance is, 'will suburban women be mobilized by the abortion issue to vote for Democrats and Kamala Harris, or are they going to be driven by resentment over inflation and other economic indicators that have come down and hurt their budget for their families?'" Jacobs said.
On Wednesday, there was a steady flow of people coming and going from the Carver County Government Center to vote early. So far, more than half a million Minnesotans have cast their ballots with six days left until Election Day, according to the secretary of state's office.
A woman named Debbie, who declined to give her last name, said the economy and illegal crossings at the border were her top issues and she voted for Trump. She also said she backs some of his campaign promises, like no taxes on social security payments or tips.
"I don't like him personally. I don't think as a human being he has a great personality, but I like the issues, I like what he stands for," she said. "And we have lived under him for four years and I think my life was a lot better."
Shikhu Sanjel, a 21-year-old student at Mankato State, said protecting abortion rights is her top concern and Harris has her support. But the vice president's historic candidacy — the first woman of color at the top of a major party ticket — also resonates with her.
"I've been in Carver [County] most of my life. I came here in 2006 to the United States, so seeing that representation definitely matters to me," she said. "I grew up being the only Nepali person in my high school."
Nationally, Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in the polls. The economy, abortion rights and the border are consistently top issues for voters.