ESPN simulated the 2024 NFL season. Vikings fans won't like the results.
MINNEAPOLIS — The 2024 NFL season kicks off this week and Minnesota Vikings fans have plenty to be excited about — or maybe anxious is a better word.
It's the beginning of a new era in Minnesota, with longtime quarterback Kirk Cousins now wearing black and red in Atlanta. Sam Darnold is steering the ship now, and though his six-year career has fallen well short of expectations for a third overall pick, he's never had this much offensive talent to play with before.
The team also received an influx of defensive talent this offseason, with multiple new pass rushers, linebackers and cornerbacks for defensive coordinator Brian Flores to throw at offenses.
All that is to say the Vikings are one of the more volatile teams in the league. Factor in a foreboding division and fans are looking at a wide range of outcomes for Minnesota.
ESPN's Football Power Index, which the media company says is "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward," offers one outcome that probably won't make fans very happy.
FPI simulates the season thousands of times to offer predictions on records, playoff chances and more, but ESPN's Seth Walder highlighted one specific simulation for a season preview.
In this simulation, the Vikings manage a pathetic four wins, good for the worst record in the league and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft. To throw salt in the wound, every other NFC North team finished with double-digit wins and made the playoffs.
In fact, the Detroit Lions are your Super Bowl champions in this simulation. Needless to say, the Lions winning a Lombardi before the Vikings would cut some fans deeply.
The good news: With their quarterback of the future already on the roster in J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings could deal the No. 1 pick to a needy team for a fortune, setting them up handsomely for the future. But that may be cold comfort for fans who will have to watch 13 losses.
A last-place finish would probably put head coach Kevin O'Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah on the hot seat, though the Wilfs are abnormally patient owners. And with McCarthy waiting in the wings, the duo probably gets another year at the helm before any drastic moves are made.
For what it's worth, the totality of FPI's analysis is more generous to the Vikings, though not overly so. It projects the Vikings to go closer to 7-10, with a 14% chance of making the playoffs (though just a 0.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl).
While ESPN's model may not be high on the Vikings, the true beauty of the NFL is how unpredictable it can be. Just last season, the Houston Texans, buoyed by C.J. Stroud having one of the best rookie quarterback seasons of all time, shocked the world with double-digit wins and a blowout playoff win.
The Vikings start the season Sunday on the road against the New York Giants. Will it be the opening salvo of a special year, or the first misfire in a seasonlong slog?