Are the Minnesota Vikings true contenders? Depends on your definition.
MINNEAPOLIS — After a closer-than-it-needed-to-be win over the Chicago Bears, the Minnesota Vikings sit at 9-2.
The NFL currently gives the team a 98% probability of making the playoffs. So now the question becomes: is this team for real?
NFL insider Cody Benjamin says it depends on how you define "for real."
"If we say the Vikings are wild-card contenders, are a lock to make the playoffs, I would say absolutely. I mean 9-2, it's hard to lose the ground that you've built up here," Benjamin said. "Are they a Super Bowl contender? That's where I would pump the brakes a little bit."
Benjamin notes the Vikings were 13-4 just two years ago and lost in the first round of the playoffs. That team was similarly knocked for narrow wins and its legitimacy was constantly — and rightfully — questioned.
The other thing worth considering, Benjamin said, is the Vikings' recent level of competition. Though they're on a four-game winning streak, those victories have come against the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears. Three of those four wins came by a touchdown or less.
"None of those teams are even close to being Super Bowl contenders," Benjamin said.
As Benjamin said, the Vikings are in a great spot. They're only one game back from the division-leading Detroit Lions and multiple games ahead of most wild-card contenders. Those Lions are the class of the NFC, with the Philadelphia Eagles also considered a top contender. To see how serious this Vikings team is, it's useful to compare it against those two.
The Vikings rank ninth in points scored and fifth in points allowed. The Lions — likely the best team in the league — are first and second in those stats, respectively, while the Eagles are seventh and sixth.
In terms of expected points added per play, a stat that measures how positively or negatively impactful a team's performance is on an average play, the Vikings' offense is 15th at -0.01. The Lions are fourth in the league at 0.14 and the Eagles sit sixth at 0.09.
On the defensive side, the Vikings are the best in the NFL by EPA/play at -0.16. The Lions are right behind them at -0.15 and the Eagles are fourth at -0.11.
It's clear from the advanced statistics that the Vikings aren't quite a true contender — or at least they aren't currently at that level. To convince fans they're primed for a deep postseason run, they'll have to do one of two things: start beating bad teams decisively, or beat another true contender. With the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons and Bears ahead on the schedule, they have a chance to do the former. Then they wrap the season against the Green Bay Packers and Lions, giving them a chance to do the latter as well.
But as Benjamin sees it, fans should enjoy the ride and not fret so much about whether the Vikings are true contenders.
"Be grateful for where you're at," he said. "There's still a decent amount of games to go where the Vikings can build up some traction and have some even more momentum going into the playoffs,"