Tropical moisture from Hurricane Ian arrives in South Florida Monday, worst weather is Tuesday
MIAMI - All eyes are on the Caribbean where Hurricane Ian is forecast to rapidly intensify on Monday.
As of the National Hurricane Center's 8 a.m. advisory, Ian's pressure dropped but it was still a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph as it moved to the northwest at 14 mph.
A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
The center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday and near or over western Cuba Monday and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west of Florida on Wednesday.
Ian is forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane Monday night when it is near western Cuba. It is forecast to move across western Cuba overnight as a Category 3 and become a Category 4 hurricane as it moves to the west of the Lower Keys.
Much of central and northern Florida is included in the forecast cone. There is now the potential of a dangerous major Category 3 hurricane moving near or making landfall somewhere along the west coast of Florida. Many models forecast it may landfall near or over the Tampa Bay coast. But the forecast track may shift depending on how the steering pattern evolves.
Although there is some uncertainty regarding exactly where it could make landfall, folks up and down the west coast of Florida should be on high alert and preparing for the potential impacts of a major hurricane.
Here in South Florida, we will be dealing with some impacts. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West and Dry Tortugas as tropical storm conditions are forecast for the Lower Keys within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued for the Lower Keys Tuesday into Wednesday due to the potential for storm surge of 2 to 4 feet. Tropical moisture will start to move in on Monday leading to some scattered storms and heavy downpours at times.
The worst weather will likely occur Tuesday as Hurricane Ian makes its closest approach to South Florida. Although the center of Ian is forecast to stay to our west, remember the impacts extend well out and away from the center.
Here in South Florida, we will be dealing with heavy rain bands, flooding and gusty winds. Tropical storm force winds are expected across the Keys. Tropical storm gusts will be possible for Miami-Dade and Broward. Isolated tornadoes will be possible in some of the stronger rain bands.
Keep checking back with CBS4 Next Weather team for updates.