Tracking The Tropics: Closely watching wave in southeast Caribbean, four other systems
MIAMI - The CBS4 Next Weather team is closely monitoring a tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
Although upper level winds are currently inhibiting development, the environment is forecast to gradually become favorable in a couple of days and a tropical depression is likely to form at that time.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a high potential (90% chance) of cyclone development over the next 2 to 5 days.
Forecast models are in agreement that this system will likely move west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean during the next day or two, and then will likely be over the central Caribbean over the weekend. Regardless of development, this wave is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the Windward Islands, northern Venezuela and the ABC island chain.
Late weekend this disturbance is expected to move northward. But the forecast models diverge early to middle of next week indicating a lot of uncertainty regarding where exactly this system will go. We will have to watch this closely.
In the meantime, Hurricane Fiona remains a powerful, dangerous Category 4 hurricane. Fiona is moving north-northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Fiona is forecast to only slightly weaken to a Category 3 hurricane before the center passes just to the west of Bermuda on Thursday night. It will then move to the north nd approach Nova Scotia on Friday, and move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday.
Tropical Storm Gaston in the northern Atlantic is headed towards the westernmost Azores. As of Thursday's 8 a.m. advisory, it was located 340 miles west-northwest of Faial Island of the central Azores. Gaston was moving east-northeast at 17 miles per hour with sustained winds of 65 mils per hour.
In the eastern central Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has a low potential (30% chance) of cyclone development over the next 5 days as it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.
In the Eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a medium potential (60 % chance) of development over the next 2 to 5 days as it moves slowly northward between West Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. This may become a tropical depression by this weekend.