NOAA updates 2023 hurricane season, predicts "above" normal activity
MIAMI - As we head into the so-called heart of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has updated its outlook.
On Thursday, scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center increased their prediction for the ongoing hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
NOAA forecasters increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%, compared to 30% when they issued their initial outlook last May.
NOAA predicted we could see 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), and 2-5 could strengthen into major hurricanes - Category 3 or stronger with winds of at least 111 mph. This includes the four named storms and one unnamed one we've already had.
"The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures," said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with Climate Prediction Center, in a statement. "Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season."
El Nino usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season.
So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop and climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.