Dolphins Vs. Titans: Predictions, NFL picks, Point Spreads & ATS Trends
By Abraham Gutierrez
The way the (1-3) Miami Dolphins’ season has gone, new interim coach Dan Campbell isn’t getting any love from oddsmakers heading into his NFL coaching debut in Week 6 of the 2015 NFL season. Instead, the former tight-ends coach will lead his troops into Nissan Stadium with a three-point ATS cushion, and prove his guys can compete with one of the worst teams in the National Football League in the (1-3) Tennessee Titans.
Sunday’s game marks the 35th time the Titans and Dolphins have faced each other. And while Miami comes in leading the series 18-16, Tennessee has won two of the last three meetings. Week 10 of the 2012 NFL season was the last time these intraconference foes collided.
In front of 61,000 Dolphins fans, the Titans dominated the proceedings, coming away with a 37-3 victory on the road. In this instance, Tennessee [-3] is listed as three-point favorites versus the visiting Dolphins [+3], the OVER/UNDER tallies 44 points, and alternate betting lines go as follows: Fins [+110] vs. The Flaming Throwbacks [-130].
The fact that this is a “what have you done for me lately” league, no one should be shocked about the fact that not too many people expect Campbell’s team to hit the road and come home with a “W.” This is evident by the fact that the general consensus for this game favors a Tennessee ATS cover.
Just a few days removed from kickoff, 58 percent of all wagers registered have been for the Titans to cover at -3. For those counting, that’s 580 units for the betting favorites, who come into Week 6 with a 2-2 ATS record this season. But when analyzing the way Tennessee has performed against the spread, some bettors might want to consider some rather alarming statistics.
For starters, the Titans come in with a 17-35-4 ATS record in their last 56 games overall. Ken Whisenhunt’s bunch is also 4-10 in their last 14 games after scoring less than 15 points the week prior, and if that’s not enough, Tennessee has struggled in its own building, sporting a 7-19-2 ATS mark in its last 28 home games.
Considering this is an intraconference affair, the Titans’ 6-17-3 ATS record versus the AFC is also cause for concern. This team has also shown a tendency to play down to the level of its competition even with home cooking on their side, coming in with a 2-7-1 ATS record in their last 10 home games against teams with losing records.
One of the things that make betting on this particular game even that much trickier is the fact that Miami’s most recent ATS trends are also very discouraging. For starters, the Joe Philbin era finished off with Miami posting an ATS record of 1-3 on the year. Thus, the betting population has decided to stay away from the lowly Fins even after the coaching change and subsequent bye week.
As of Thursday morning, the Dolphins account for only 42 percent of the ATS action. For those keeping track, that’s only 415 folks who believe Miami can go into the Music City and either, stun the Titans straight up, or, worst-case scenario, lose by a field goal or less.
Even the most optimistic Dolphins fan would be hesitant to put money on this team considering how they’ve performed against the spread recently. Much like in the case of the Titans, there aren’t too many stats to go by that enables bettors to place their hard-earned coin on Miami with any type of certainty.
First, there’s the fact that the Fins haven’t been unable to win on the road against teams below .500. Ryan Tannehill & Co. are a dismal 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 contests away from the Sunshine State versus a team with losing record, which is what the Titans are. Looking to stop a three-game skid, Miami is also 2-7 in their last nine Week 6 games, 1-5 following a straight-up loss, 1-6 after an ATS loss, and 1-8 in its last nine games overall.
But as any seasoned bettor knows, stats and figures only go so far in the National Football League. Facing a do-or-die situation, one is convinced that the Dolphins will begin their climb out of the 1-3 hole they’ve dug for themselves by blowing out the Tennessee Titans at home.
2015 NFL Week 6 Predictions: Miami Dolphins [+3]
Abe Gutierrez's (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.