Bills Vs. Dolphins 2015 NFL Week 3 Odds, Predictions And Picks ATS Preview
By Abraham Gutierrez
If ATS trends for the Week 3 clash between the (1-1) Miami Dolphins [-3] and the (1-1) Buffalo Bills [+3] are correct, the Fins should be able to right the ship and put the memories of the first two weeks of the 2015 NFL season in the backburner. That's because Miami's home opener promises to be a roaring success, if the numbers in the series are right, giving those in attendance at Sun Life Stadium something to toast to.
That's because head-to-head (against the spread) trends for the matchup between these old bitter rivals goes as follows: Betting favorite is 7-1 in their last eight meetings, home team is 5-1 in their last six, and Rex Ryan's Bills have struggled in South Florida with an ATS record of 2-5-1 in their last eight visits to the Sunshine State.
But face it, there's always a "but" in NFL betting – some will find that, individually, it might be smarter for those betting against the spread to take the Bills rather than the Fins. As stated above, Miami is considered a three-point favorite, while Buffalo will have a margin of error equaling to a field goal. Also worth noting before going forward with these teams' ATS trends is the OVER/UNDER, which is set at a combined total of 44 points.
ATS Trends - Buffalo Bills (Week 3)
Even though the Bills have struggled to cover the spread when facing the rival Dolphins, the following stats indicate that this is a reliable bet against the rest of the league, especially coming off a loss. The first piece of information to consider is that Buffalo is 4-0 (against the spread) following a straight-up loss, and 4-1 after an ATS defeat. In addition, the New Yorkers are 6-2 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards and in their last eight games overall, as well as sporting a 5-2 mark versus intraconference teams.
ATS Trends - Miami Dolphins (Week 3)
What pro-Miami bettors need to know is that the Fins have struggled to cover in their last seven home games (2-5), in their last 5 contests following an ATS loss, and versus the AFC East they're only 1-4 as of late.
Also concerning is Joe Philbin's 1-4-1 ATS record in the last six Week 3 games, 1-5 mark after accumulating more than 250 passing yards in the previous game, and the fact that the Dolphins are winless (0-4) after tallying fewer than 90 yards on the ground. In the OVER/UNDER department, here's how both teams have fared according to their most recent point-total trends:
O/U Trends - Buffalo Bills
Under is 4-0 in the last four games after allowing more than 30 points defensively.
Under is 5-0 in the last five games after allowing more than 250 passing yards.
Under is 4-0 in the last four games following an ATS loss.
Under is 7-1 in the last eight games after scoring more than 30 points.
O/U Trends – Miami Dolphins
Over is 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games in Week 3.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games in September.
Under is 13-4 in their last 17 games against the AFC East.
NFL Week 3 Predictions 2015: Buffalo Bills +3
Abe Gutierrez's (Twitter: @GutierrezAbe) passion led him to ditch law school journey in order to launch his own publishing company. His expertise make him a valued addition to Examiner.com, AXS.com and the CBS-Sports family. Some of his work can be found on CBS-Miami (Dolphins), CBS-LosAngeles (Chargers), CBS-BayArea (Raiders), CBS-NewYork (NY Jets), CBS-TampaBay (Buccaneers), AXS.com, Examiner.com and other online publications.