LAUSD facing 30% drop in student enrollment within the decade

The high cost of living, continuing decline in the birth rate, dwindling immigration, and an increase in charter schools have all converged to create a dire scenario for the Los Angeles Unified School District – a 30% drop in student enrollment within 10 years.

LAUSD, often touted as the second-largest district in the nation by enrollment, may not be able to say that for much longer due to the steep drops in enrollment its facing. The district currently has 430,000 K-12 students enrolled at its campuses, but that number is forecast to fall to 309,000 within nine years.

Just two decades ago, LAUSD's enrollment peaked at 737,000 – a time when school district officials across the region were considering year-round schedules to accommodate its packed schools.

According to LAUSD Superintendent Alberto Carvalho, enrollment is falling faster than the state average. And because enrollment is linked to funding, it could lead to steep staffing cuts and school closures, which is already happening at neighboring districts like Pasadena and Azusa.

"Los Angeles Unified is facing an alarming convergence and acceleration of enrollment decline and the expiration of one-time state and federal dollars, as well as ongoing and increasing financial liabilities," Carvalho said in a statement. "a number of factors have concealed the true financial crisis, such as the influx of state and federal funding to protect against the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. These one-time funds allowed the District to kick the can down the road, but the can is getting bigger and the road shorter."

The timing of the dire news, however, is questionable for some education advocates, who note that the district is currently in contract negotiations with the teacher's union. The union wants a 20% raise over the next two years.

"I don't necessarily dispute it, right? Like, I'm not in there with the numbers. I just think the timing is interesting," teacher's advocate Jenna Schwartz said. "There's nothing that's happening here that's surprising or confusing. Honestly, this is what happens when you don't provide. It's not because of birth rate, right? It's not because of cost of living. That's all part of it. But it's just from a historic lack of [funding]."