Hurricane Hilary: What can Los Angeles, Orange County and the Inland Empire expect from the Category 4 storm?

Evelyn Taft and the other KCAL meteorologists are actively tracking Hurricane Hilary and its path through Southern California. Here are some quick, easy-to-read bullet points from Evelyn outlining things you need to know:

• Timing looks on track for late Sunday/early Monday but we will continue to refine the timing.
• A flood watch will be issued on Sunday and continue through Monday.
• Rainfall is still on track for 1-2" but could we get locally higher amounts.
• Tropical storm force winds will be possible over our coastal waters.

Hilary's arrival could bring...

• Locally heavy rain and flash flooding will become an increasing threat in Southern California this weekend, lasting into the first half of next week.
• Some areas may see rounds of heavy downpours that can dump half an inch to an inch of rain or more in an hour, leading to flooding landslides and mudslides especially over recent burn areas.
• High surf, coastal flooding and rip currents.
• Wind gusts that could mimic a Santa Ana wind, except could be accompanied by rain.

If Hilary hits California as a tropical storm...

• It would be the first time that happened in 26 years since Hurricane Nora tracked near the Colorado River in California as a tropical storm in September 1997.
• There were only two other times that happened before 1950, including a September 1939 tropical storm in the LA Basin and an Oct. 2, 1858, hurricane, which tracked from San Diego to Long Beach.

Why Hilary is tracking so far north...

• Most Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes form off the Mexican Pacific coast, then track over open water to the west and northwest and fizzle.
• In this case, Hilary will be drawn northward because of the wind flow around a dome of high pressure in the Central US.
• Moisture could track all the way to the Rockies, Idaho and Montana.

Why will Hilary weaken as it moves north...

• Hilary is expected to lose steam once it hits cooler water near the Baja Peninsula.
• Hilary's center could move over the Baja Peninsula which will weaken it significantly by the time it passes over Southern California.

Is this similar to last year's Hurricane Kay? 

• Last year (around this time) Hurricane Kay fizzled to our south near the US-Mexico border.
• It never made it's way into SoCal but Kay's remnants dumped up to 6 inches of rain in parts of the desert and mountains, leading to flash flooding, mudslides and debris flows.
• Kay's remnants also produced wind gusts over 80 mph in the San Diego County mountains.