With K-Rod, Ausmus Needs To Start Living In The Now
By: Will Burchfield
@burchie_kid
It makes sense in theory.
Francisco Rodriguez has the fourth most saves of all time. He has pitched in more pressurized moments than any of his active counterparts. He is, by all accounts, a cold-blooded, steel-nerved reliever with the moxie to look any hitter or situation in the eye and refuse to blink.
The idea that he is better suited for the big moment satisfies the intuition.
Doesn't mean it's true.
Rodriguez failed as the Tigers closer in the first month of the season, and he hasn't been much better since being pushed back up the bullpen ladder over the last few weeks. There's no doubt he still has the mental makeup to succeed in high-leverage spots, but it looks as if his arm can no longer keep up.
It takes both. But the Tigers, Brad Ausmus especially, seem to be neglecting one in preference of the other.
"He's very savvy, he's a very intelligent pitcher," Ausmus said earlier this season, when defending K-Rod's claim to be closer.
The manager put it like this. Pitching in a low-stakes situation is like walking across a 10-foot-long table anchored to the ground. Trying to close out a game is like walking across that same table suspended 1,000 feet in the air.
"When it's the sixth inning it's only ten feet in the air, and with every out and every inning that passes that table goes higher and higher. Frankie has not only the mental fortitude but the experience to do that, and to bounce back if he falls off the table," Ausmus said.
It's an apt metaphor, one that speaks to the idea that all 27 outs aren't created equal. There's likely some truth to that, even if the sabermetricians might disagree, and K-Rod has proven over a 16-year career that he's got the guts to walk the tightest of ropes.
"Frankie has been one of the best closers in the history of the game for a long time. And I agree with him that I think he's better and has been better in situations where the game is on the line, because he elevates his game and he can take advantage of the hitters with the type of pitcher he is," Ausmus said last week, amid the heat of the K-Rod controversy.
Since making those comments, Ausmus has called on Rodriguez four times, each time at an important juncture of a game. The reliever has hit .500.
He kept a tie game level in his first outing, then blew a late lead in his next. He kept the Tigers within striking distance in his third outing, then dug them a hole in his fourth. In each of his slip-ups, the home run was the snag.
K-Rod has surrendered eight homers in 24 1/3 innings this season. His 2.96 HR/9 is the eighth-highest rate in the majors. He entered this season with a career rate of .84 HR/9. That kind of increase is staggering.
Here's the thing. Almost all of those home runs have come in situations where Rodriguez purportedly thrives. In fact, the bulk of his struggles this season have been concentrated in high-leverage scenarios.
According to baseball-reference.com, K-Rod has yielded five of his eight homers, 18 of his 29 hits and 17 of his 25 runs in high-leverage situations. And this isn't a product of disproportional sample sizes -- Rodriguez has faced 49 hitters in high-leverage spots and 45 in low-leverage spots. Against the former, he's surrendered a 4.09 batting average and a 1.36 OPS; against the latter, a .175 average and a .642 OPS.
But the Tigers continue to trot him into games where the outcome is hanging in the balance.
"I want to continue to get him into higher-leverage situations because we're a lot better team when he's pitching in those situations successfully," said Ausmus last week.
Part of this, to be fair, is due to the fact the Tigers desperately need a reliable third reliever in front of closer Justin Wilson. They cannot continue to lean solely on Alex Wilson and Shane Greene as setup men or they will burn them both out.
"We wanna get Frankie back in the fold late in games because we're gonna wear Alex Wilson and Shane Greene out if we don't. We need another guy who has that capability. He's shown he can do it in the past and we think he's gonna do it again," Ausmus said.
But at some point, the recent evidence outweighs the track record. And the recent evidence is making it painfully clear that K-Rod, for all his success and savvy, all his experience and expertise, isn't capable of getting the outs he once was.
It's not that he longer knows how. (If anything, he knows better than ever.) It's that his pitches lack the bite and the deception needed to execute the plan.
When asked why he believes Rodriguez is better fit for the big moment, Ausmus said, "Frankie's a very intelligent pitcher who can take advantage of what he perceives is either recklessness or aggressiveness from the hitter. I think sometimes he's almost in the hitter's head, kind of understands what they're thinking and takes advantage of that."
Pressed on how that's different from pitching in, say, a lopsided game in the fifth inning, Ausmus said, "In the fifth inning the hitter's a lot more inclined to sit back and wait for a pitch. When it's late and close, hitters wanna hit. They wanna be the hero, they wanna get the big hit, they wanna get on base."
Against K-Rod, they've begun to find it easy. Their aggressiveness is suddenly working in their favor. In late-and-close situations - exactly the scenario Ausmus alluded to, defined by Baseball Reference as the seventh inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or trailing with the tying run on deck - Rodriguez has surrendered a .359 batting average and a 1.23 OPS. He's given up seven home runs.
This isn't meant to diminish all that K-Rod has achieved over the course of his career. With six All-Star Game appearances and 437 saves, including the most in a single season (62, in 2008), he's a sure bet for the Hall of Fame. But the Tigers are banking on the past too heavily in the present. They're putting too much stock in a mind that's being betrayed by an arm.
Rodriguez, for a long time, was fit for the fire. During his years with the Angels there were few sights in baseball more intimidating than No. 57 jogging out of the bullpen with the opportunity to lock down a game. But K-Rod has lost the fear factor just as surely as he's lost his effectiveness.
It's on the Tigers, Ausmus especially, to start living in the now.