Why Trading Miguel Cabrera To The Red Sox Doesn't Add Up

By: Will Burchfield
@burchie_kid

The Tigers want to get younger and leaner. General Manager Al Avila is open to anything that helps them achieve that.

According to reports, the team is taking calls on the availability of Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera. When next season begins, one - or both - of those superstars may be pulling on a different uniform.

One rumor that has popped up in recent days, with the General Managers Meetings underway in Scottsdale, Ariz., is that Cabrera could be traded to the Boston Red Sox.

The logic goes something like this: The Red Sox are looking for a slugger to fill the shoes of David Ortiz. The Tigers are looking to unload salary and replenish their prospect pool. The Red Sox can afford to take on the rest of Cabrera's gargantuan contract and have the type of young talent the Tigers covet.

And did you hear? The Red Sox' President of Baseball Operations is Dave Dombrowski, the former Tigers' GM, who has a history of pulling off blockbuster trades - including the one that brought Cabrera to Detroit.

So it all adds up. Cabrera to the Red Sox. Signed, sealed and delivered.

Hold on a minute.

As Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com points out, "If the Red Sox decide to spend big on a first baseman/designated hitter, Edwin Encarnacion likely will cost less than Cabrera in total dollars -- at zero prospect cost."

Cabrera is due an average of $31 million per year through his age-40 season (2023), with vesting options of $30 million per year through 2025. The free-agent Encarnacion is likely to break the $20 million-per-year barrier with his next contract, but he won't rake in as much money as Cabrera.

And, as Morosi reminds us, the Red Sox wouldn't have to surrender top prospects to acquire the Blue Jays' slugging first baseman.

If Cabrera is traded anywhere this offseason, Morosi suggests the most likely destination is Houston:

"Based in the fourth-largest city in the U.S., the Astros have signaled that they are prepared to increase their payroll and bring it more in line with their market size. Houston needs a big bat, possesses a strong farm system and has a compelling personal sales pitch: Jose Altuve -- Cabrera's friend and fellow native of Maracay, Venezuela -- would play alongside him on the Astros' infield," Morosi writes.

For all the talk about moving Cabrera, Verlander remains the Tigers' most viable option in terms of shedding significant salary. He's coming off a Cy Young Award-worthy season and doesn't carry a contract that could become a serious burden in the future.

Verlander, who will be 34 at the start of next season, is due $84 million over the next three years -- "a reasonable sum for someone named an American League Cy Young Award finalist Monday," Morosi writes.

According to one GM, Morosi added, Verlander would command "more years and overall dollars than are on his current deal" if he were on the open market right now.

"In other words, Verlander is priced fairly in the marketplace, to the extent that the Tigers could expect the acquiring team to assume all of his salary while including good -- perhaps even great -- prospects," writes Morosi.

He named the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees as possible landing spots for Verlander, who would have to approve any trade the Tigers draw up.

Cabrera has a full no-trade clause as well. It's a reminder of all the hurdles that stand between the Tigers and their stated offseason mission.

As Avila said on Tuesday, "The goal is to shed payroll and get better. Now, how do you do that? It may not all be accomplished in one shot. It's a process. I'm going to keep on saying that. It's not a process you do in three months.

"At the very beginning, I said this may be a process that takes three winters, not just one winter."

In:
• MLB
• Justin Verlander
• Miguel Cabrera