Science of Weather: Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks
Before the storm strikes, you need to be prepared. I'm breaking down the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks.
If there is a threat of severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman Oklahoma highlights that area on a national map. The scale is based on 5 different risk categories and the probabilistic forecast expresses the best estimate of a severe weather situation occurring within 25 miles of any given location. You may hear us reference the storm prediction center or SPC for short on occasion if we have a risk for severe weather. The categories are marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high.
Those categories are based on the threshold of the severe storm potential and a specific color will correspond to it. This breakdown will hopefully help you understand the severe weather threats based on the level categories.
Starting with level 1, marginal risk. Represented in dark green. This means storms will be isolated and short-lived with limited organization and intensity. At this point, strong damaging winds and small hail are possible with the tornado risk being low.
Level 2 slight risk highlighted in yellow. Scattered and short-lived storms with varying levels of intensity. Winds could result in damage. One or two tornadoes are possible along with hail.
Level 3, enhanced risk highlighted in orange. Numerous and more persistent storms. A few tornadoes can't be ruled out. Several reports of wind damage along with damaging hail stones.
Level 4, moderate risk highlighted in red. Severe weather coverage will be more widespread with several long-lived storms. Several strong tornadoes and numerous severe thunderstorms are possible. Along with widespread wind damage and large perhaps destructive hail.
Level 5 high risk represented by the color magenta. This means storms could bring catastrophic damage. Storms are likely to be widespread, long-lived, and very intense which could result in a tornado outbreak.
Any of these risks are a threat, and you need to take them all seriously.
This severe weather season, make sure to have a plan in place in case of an weather emergency and make sure you have multiple ways to get alerts. I'm Meteorologist Kylee Miller.