How will La Niña affect Michigan this winter?
(CBS DETROIT) - Last winter was mild, with below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures. This year, however, things could be a bit different with La Niña.
While El Niño is the warm phase, La Niña is the cool phase of the temperature climate in the tropical Pacific Ocean called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
Typically, the trade winds push warm surface water towards Asia, moving from east to west. But in some years those trade winds are stronger, which causes cool water to rise to the surface in the eastern portion of the Pacific Ocean. This causes the jet stream to flow further north, bringing Michigan more wet weather with no significant impact on temperatures.
Trent Frey, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Detroit, says the La Niña forecast has changed.
"I think we were originally forecasted to have a moderate or maybe even strong La Niña this year, whereas right now, the latest forecast calls for a weak La Niña. And those are just determined based on how cold, how much colder than normal — that area of the Pacific Ocean near the equator is. So, the colder it is, the stronger the La Niña," he said.
Last year was one of the warmest winters on record due to the strong El Niño. But what can we expect this year?
"So this year, we're expecting a wetter year," Frey said. "That's going to be the more likely scenario. It's tough to say whether a lot of that will fall as snow or if it could fall as rain or, you know, a wintry mix, some ice and freezing rain. Things like that. Instead of kind of being on the drier, less snowy side, we're more likely to be on the wetter, a potentially more snowy side."