Big Ten Power Rankings [BLOG]
By: Brian Chapman
@bchapsports
Have you seen the line for this week's Michigan-Michigan State game? The last time I checked, the Spartans were favored by 17 points. That's the most they've ever been favored against Michigan. That's because this is as big as the gap has ever been in favor of the Spartans. It's even bigger than it was last year when Michigan ran for -48 yards in East Lansing because this year the Spartans have one of the highest scoring offenses in the country. Seventeen points is a big number, but I would expect Michigan State to cover despite how hard Michigan will play on Saturday.
As far as rooting interests are concerned, I have been a huge advocate of Michigan fans rooting for their team to lose in order to #LeaveNoDoubt about Brady Hoke's future. That said, when you play a rival with a chance to derail their season, it makes the situation tricky. If I was a Michigan fan, the best case scenario would be to end the Spartans College Football Playoff run with a stunning upset in East Lansing. The next best scenario would be to lose 85-0 with Hoke losing his job before he can get to the postgame press conference. The worst scenario would be for Michigan to play hard and lose by one possession like they did last year to the Buckeyes. That would show progress from last year and give people reason to believe they could win their next three before "The Game" in Columbus. I still believe 6-6 could lead to Hoke returning for his fifth season, especially if he wins the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field.
So how do I see the conference heading into the final week of the best month on the sports calendar? Like this:
1. Michigan State (6-1, 3-0, last week No. 1)… Last weekend when the Spartans led Indiana by just 11 at the half and the Buckeyes led Rutgers by 28, for the first time this year I considered dropping the Spartans down to No. 2 in the conference. Fortunately for the Spartans, they turned it around defensively in the second half and the offense surged ahead for a blowout victory. To contend for a College Football Playoff spot, this is how they to run up the score in conference games, unlike what they did the previous two weeks.
2. Ohio State (5-1, 2-0, last week No. 2)… The Buckeyes still don't have Braxton Miller, but last week against Rutgers, freshman QB J.T. Barrett moved his team up a notch from the fifth to the fourth highest scoring offense in the country at 46.5 ppg after a 56-17 rout. Barrett has led his team to at least 20 points in each half since the loss to Virginia Tech. It's looking more and more like the real Big Ten Championship game (the one at Spartan Stadium on November 5) will be a shootout, not a defensive war.
3. Nebraska (6-1, 2-1, last week No. 3)… The Corn Huskers are one bad half of football at Spartan Stadium away from being an undefeated top 10 team in the thick of the College Football Playoff race. That's certainly one way to look at their season because this team has not gone the way of recent teams in Lincoln that lose inexplicably in outrageous fashion en route to a 9-win season. I don't think they'll get into the playoff if they win out, but if people are talking about Ohio State and Michigan State sneaking in with a 12-1 record; shouldn't Nebraska be in the discussion if they beat one of those teams in Indianapolis?
4. Minnesota (6-1, 3-0, last week No. 5)… Minnesota looks like a pretty good team, but that's as far as I can praise them especially after what happened last weekend. As much as the Boilermakers have improved, there's no excuse for letting them score 38 points and come within one of pulling off an upset. They trailed by nine late into the third quarter and were down most of the fourth quarter. Against Purdue! Defense has been Minnesota's strength and had it not been for a pair of turnovers, Purdue would have won this game convincingly. As I said last week, their record will make a sharp adjustment to the mean in their final three games against Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin, but when you already have six wins and you're in the B1G, I have no choice but to slot you in at No. 4.
5. Maryland (5-2, 2-1, last week No. 7)… If huge momentum shifts are your thing, then I guess you couldn't have done any better than watching last week's Terps-Hawkeyes game. After Iowa scored 14 points in the first nine minutes I was snickering about how Maryland had no business playing in the B1G (not like the B1G is so great.) Then Maryland scored 38 of the next 45 points and it looked like the rout was on until they gave up ten points late and Iowa came to within an onside kick and a touchdown to forcing overtime. I'll just chalk this up to another entertaining but inconsequential game in the B1G's bland middle class.
6. Wisconsin (4-2, 1-1, last week No. 4) … Halfway through Wisconsin's season and returning from a bye, I'm really starting to wonder about this squad. They no longer appear to be one of the top two teams in the weaker Eastern Division because they are so reliant on running the ball with Melvin Gordon and they can't seem to translate that into enough points. With Nebraska plus five middle class conference foes on the schedule to finish the season, I could easily see the Badgers finishing 7-5 and fans starting to turn on head coach Gary Andersen.
7. Iowa (5-2, 2-1, last week No. 8)… See my blurb on Maryland and add two things. First, Jake Rudock throwing 56 passes is never a formula for victory. Second, living with the knowledge that you just lost at home to a middle class B1G team has to be a very dark and depressing feeling.
8. Northwestern (3-4, 2-2, last week No. 6)… After getting shutout 24-0 at home against Nebraska over the weekend, it's time to close the casket on a bounce back season for Northwestern. The Penn State win was impressive, but nearly as great as it looked at the time and the win against Wisconsin looks worse now that they are taking on water. The Wildcats' biggest problem is their inability to score and you can't help but wonder how much better off they'd be if RB Venric Mark had decided not to transfer.
9. Penn State (4-2, 1-2, last week No. 9)… The Nittany Lions entered the month of October 4-1 and just one week removed from that "also receiving votes category." Then they had a bye week to prepare for their next game only to lose to Michigan. After another bye week (Really? Two bye weeks in a three week span? Who makes up these schedules?) Ohio State will come to Happy Valley to close out a winless likely (0-2) October. Penn State's season comes down to the four games before the Michigan State game where they can either prove they are an above average B1G team or flounder and settle for the Quick Lane Bowl.
10. Rutgers (5-2, 1-2, last week No. 10)… Last week current Tennessee Titans CB/former Rutgers star Jason McCourty said, "I'm looking forward to the biggest upset and the biggest win in school history" before their matchup in Columbus against the Deep South Buckeyes. At halftime his Scarlet Knights trailed 35-7. Just because Rutgers beat one major B1G brand in Michigan when it was down doesn't make Rutgers some sort of juggernaut. Heck, they couldn't even beat another major B1G brand in Penn State despite leading at the half at home. I'm sure reality has set in for McCourty and he won't make an outlandish prediction for the Nebraska game this weekend, but I wouldn't rip him for predicting a win against the two-time B1G championship game winning Wisconsin Badgers the week after, if he chooses to do so.
11. Purdue (3-5, 1-3, last week No. 13)… Even after another loss, it's clear that the Purdue Boilermakers are on the rise in the B1G and it appears that they are better than Michigan. Their two common opponents are Notre Dame and Minnesota. Minnesota won convincingly by 16pts at the Big House against Michigan while Notre Dame flat out clowned the Wolverines 31-0. Meanwhile, Purdue only lost by two possessions to Notre Dame and lost by one at Minnesota. It's too late to make a bowl game, but they'll have a great shot to make one next year.
12. Michigan (3-4, 1-2, last week No. 11)… Michigan heads to East Lansing this year as a 17 point underdog which is the most the Spartans have ever been favored in this rivalry. So many times in the past, Michigan has been the heavy favorite in this game only to lose in this big rivalry game. Don't expect Michigan to play spoiler on Saturday. The question is whether or not they'll be competitive or leave Spartan Stadium torn and tattered like they did last year. I expect the latter.
13. Indiana (3-4, 0-2, last week No. 12)… I think it's clear that Tevin Coleman is a star and every conference foe that he faces should zero in on him to prevent an upset. However, when you have no defense and Nate Sudfeld is not under center, you don't have much of a chance of going point for point with many B1G teams.
14. Illinois (3-4, 0-3, last week No. 14)… Illinois had the week off meaning they did nothing to convince me that they are not… The worst team in the B1G.
http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2014/09/25/big-ten-power-rankings-blog/ Week 5
http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2014/10/01/big-ten-power-rankings-blog-2/ Week 6
http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2014/10/10/chapmans-b1g-power-rankings-blog/ Week 7
http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2014/10/16/chapmans-b1g-power-rankings-blog-2/ Week 8