Most Coloradans believe in climate change. So, why do some vote for climate change deniers?

With less than two months before the November election, a CBS News poll shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in the battleground states.

While climate change is not the top issue for most voters, research out of the University of Colorado Boulder finds it could be a significant factor in the race. CU's Center for Environmental Futures found a quarter of Republicans, who think climate change is very important, voted for President Biden in 2020, likely swinging the election.

But, in some parts of Colorado, voters' views on the issue aren't black and white.

Marc Arnusch is a third-generation farmer in Colorado's Prospect Valley. His grandfather and father immigrated here 70 years ago to grow sugar beets on 40 acres. Today Arnusch and his son farm 3,000 acres.

"The success of our farm is one of resiliency. It's because we've been able to pivot. And one of those things we've pivoted continually around is climate," Arnusch said.

Instead of sugar beets that demand more water, Arnusch and his son now grow wheat and barley seed, black eyed peas, grains for the craft brew and spirits industry, and corn for tortillas.

"Because we want to be sensible about our water footprint. Our farm has changed more in last 3-5 years than in the last 20 years of my farming career," Arnusch says. "That's due to some of the water use technologies we have in our field. I can bury a probe in the ground that will not only tell me how much water is in the soil, but how the crop is taking it up."

Arnusch admits his views on climate change have evolved.

"Earlier in my farming career, I was a naysayer that man couldn't possibly change the climate."

He says the evidence that human activity is responsible for the bulk of climate change is now undeniable.

"Our nighttime temperatures are rising. Our daytime temperatures have changed. Our rain patterns, our moisture patterns, have changed quite a bit. We have more asphalt and concrete in this region than ever before and the heat coming off that has really changed how storm clouds build up and move their way across the Eastern Plains of Colorado." 

Much of the Eastern Plains is in Congressional District 4 where -- according to statistical modeling by Yale University -- 63% of residents are worried about global warming and nearly 59% want Congress and the president to do more to address it. Yet, former President Donald Trump -- who has called climate change a "hoax" -- won CD4 by 23 points in 2016 and 15 points in 2020, and the district hasn't voted a Democrat into Congress for 16 years. It's one of the reasons Rep. Lauren Boebert switched to the district.

Yale's research shows that -- for a majority of people in CD4 -- a candidate's views on global warming are important to their vote. Three-fourths would support regulating carbon dioxide and two-thirds believe clean energy should be a priority for Congress, efforts Boebert opposes.

But while she is a climate denier, Arnusch, a climate believer, says he will likely vote for her.

"Climate is certainly important but it's not my top priority. When I have that ballot sitting on my table and I'm trying to decide which way to vote -- whether it's a candidate or a ballot measure, which we vote on often in this state -- I think about how this is going to affect my farm, how this is going to affect my family.

He also thinks about how it will affect his community, a community where many people work not only in farming, but fracking.

"If it was only on the shoulders of agriculture to support these rural communities in Weld County, we wouldn't be able to do it. But to have something like the oil and gas sector here is a boon for Weld County and the right thing to do for Colorado."

But a job shift is happening. More than half of Colorado's energy jobs are now clean energy. The sector grew 5.5% in the state last year, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

"We should be looking at all of the above energy strategies here in Colorado," says Arnusch.

That includes oil and gas, he says.

According to the Colorado Energy Office, it is the only sector exceeding its greenhouse gas reduction goals. Transportation -- not oil and gas -- is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Colorado, producing 25% of emissions followed by residential and commercial heat and electricity, and then oil and gas production.

Arnusch says candidates and policies that limit oil and gas production here -- where regulations are among the toughest in the world -- will only increase imports from countries with few protections and more emissions, hurting our climate not helping it.

"Things are changing. We recognize it. We may want to ignore it for a long time, but it's real. But I also believe that the American farmer will rise to that occasion and be part of that solution. The oil and gas industry will be part of the solution. We all have a stake to play in this thing. Let's quit playing politics and get down to the science."