Three biggest questions of the Nuggets offseason: What do champs need to defend their NBA title?
By Sam Quinn
(CBS SPORTS) - There's a degree of comfort that comes with being the champion. The rest of the league has to scramble to catch up to the Denver Nuggets. They're going to spend the next few days and weeks frantically scraping for every last shred of talent they can find in a probably feeble attempt to reach the level where the Nuggets are already safely perched. They are going to enter next season as the championship favorite. It's only a matter of how close the field gets.
That gap will probably be relatively wide. All five Nuggets starters from last season are under contract, and if Kentavious Caldwell-Pope picks up his player-option, they will be for the 2024-25 season as well. Key reserve Christian Braun is locked up as well, and the Nuggets are, thus far, the rare champion not to see any defections from their coaching staff. The bulk of the 2023 championship roster will remain in Denver for the foreseeable future.
But there is one key part whose future is still up in the air, and as comfortable as the Nuggets are right now, they are still going to try to add a bit to their roster if possible. So what are the stories to watch this Nuggets offseason? Here are the three biggest questions they'll have to answer in the coming weeks.
1. What can you do for Brown?
You couldn't design a better Nuggets role player in a lab than Bruce Brown. A stout defender who can punch above his weight class, Brown has improved significantly as a shooter, came into the league as a strong cutter and is the rare guard that can operate comfortably on either end of the pick-and-roll. Brown was put on this Earth to play with Nikola Jokic. How the Nuggets stole him for the taxpayer mid-level exception a year ago is one of last season's great mysteries.
Of course, nothing lasts forever. Brown is set to become a non-Bird unrestricted free agent this offseason, meaning Denver can only offer him a 20% raise on his salary from last season in order to keep him. That would take him to around $7.8 million -- more than Brown has ever made in a season, but far lower than what the field will be able to offer Brown. The bidding will likely start at the $12.2 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and could get even pricier from there. Brown has earned an estimated $15 million in his career. There are scenarios in which he earns that much next season. Denver can't win a bidding war for him.
"I want to stay," Brown told the Denver Post's Mike Singer. "... It's a perfect fit. And money is not everything." So how can the Nuggets keep Brown? There are two paths here, and neither is especially easy.
Denver's preference would be for Brown to accept that $7.8 million figure one a one-year deal, perhaps with a player option for next season. Doing so would allow him to become a free agent again next offseason, when his non-Bird rights will bump up to early Bird rights. Suddenly, Denver's flexibility in re-signing him grows significantly. Early Bird free agents can stay put and receive a 75% raise, taking Brown up to around $14 million-$15 million per year on a long-term deal. There's plenty of precedent for this. The Bucks (Bobby Portis) and Clippers (Nic Batum) have both successfully used this trick to retain free agents they probably should have lost.
But it puts all of the risk on Brown's shoulders. He can earn generational wealth right now by leaving the Nuggets. If he re-signs in Denver and gets hurt, or struggles, or simply gets punished by the financial realities of the NBA, he has no recourse. Denver can't legally promise to give him that hefty deal in a year, but the Nuggets will surely imply that they'd like to. How will they feel in a year? There's no way of knowing.
There's an alternate path here if the Nuggets want to explore it, but it puts the burden on them, not Brown, to sacrifice for a reunion. The Nuggets are so far above the cap right now that they are limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception as a mechanism for free-agent signings. That exception pays only $5 million, but as we've covered, the non-taxpayer version is much pricier. If Denver could trade Caldwell-Pope into someone else's cap space, they could generate just enough room below the first apron to feasibly offer Brown a deal starting at $12.2 million next season. Doing so would mean cutting corners elsewhere, but it's technically possible.
Would you rather have the 26-year-old Brown as your long-term starting shooting guard, or the 30-year-old Caldwell-Pope? It's a fair question. Caldwell-Pope's shooting is important on offense. He's slightly better at defending off of the ball, but the gap is minimal. Brown is stronger, a better ball-handler and probably has more prime years ahead of him. There's no good answer here. If Denver was leaning toward Brown, we'd likely have heard some Caldwell-Pope rumors. We haven't. For now, the Nuggets appear to be holding out hope that Brown returns.
And if he walks? They have that $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception to find an exception. There are a few somewhat similar players out there they could pursue as a replacement like Jevon Carter or Josh Okogie, but nobody who matches Brown's entire package. He'd be a heavy loss, and for now, there's little Denver can do to keep him in place without impacting the rest of the roster.
2. Are the kids all right?
The Nuggets made a series of aggressive trades starting in the Finals and culminating on draft day that ended with Denver landing three top-40 picks: Gonzaga forward Julian Strawther, Penn State guard Jalen Pickett and Clemson forward Hunter Tyson. Peyton Watson, a 2022 first-round pick of UCLA, hardly played last season. Zeke Nnaji, a 2020 first-round pick out of Arizona, is now eligible for a contract extension and has struggled to earn minutes consistently.
Most contenders wouldn't pay these young players much mind. Denver has sought out youth, specifically, as a collective bargaining agreement workaround. The CBA is designed to prevent teams as top-heavy and expensive as the Nuggets from adding reliable veterans, so the Nuggets loaded up on draft picks hoping to develop their future role players rather than sign them. The plan worked wonders last season, as Christian Braun grew into one of their more reliable reserves.
The stakes are higher next season if Brown walks. The Nuggets would love to see Watson grow into a replacement. He's raw, and like Brown, his shot is a bit shaky, but he's very athletic and works hard defensively. Pickett shares some traits with Brown as well, particularly as a guard that plays bigger than his size. He rebounds remarkably well for his height and plays extremely physical basketball. Strawther and Tyson are going to have harder times seeing the court immediately as shooters on a team with plenty of them. All four will have chances to earn minutes at camp, especially in the regular season.
Nnaji is the most confounding of the bench. He has all of the tools to be a reliable 3-and-D big, and they shine through on occasion, but if Michael Malone trusted his defense, he would've been in the playoff rotation. He wasn't. This is a make-or-break year for Nnaji. Denver has given him plenty of chances to prove himself and he's largely come up short. An extension is unlikely, but with no obvious backup center in place (yet), it seems as though the Nuggets are ready to let him fight for the backup center slot in the regular season.
3. Rocky Mountain ring chasers?
History suggests that proven champions tend to fairly well in free agency with older players even with only the veteran's minimum to offer. The Warriors have nabbed several such players over the years, with Otto Porter Jr. and David West as prime examples during their championship years. The Lakers have more or less built their benches around minimum salaries over the past few years, and while some signings have done better than others, championship core plus available minutes tends to be a pretty powerful recruiting equation.
Of course, it's worth noting that Los Angeles and San Francisco are traditionally desirable destinations for players. Denver largely hasn't been. Have small markets fared as well with ring chasers? To some extent, sure. West was a Spur before he was a Warrior, and Denver tends to rate far higher than San Antonio in the minds of players. LeBron James worked recruiting miracles in Cleveland, convincing former All-Stars like Shawn Marion, Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose to spend what, in some cases, were their final years in the NBA in Northeast Ohio. Jokic won't recruit as actively as James did, but his mere presence holds plenty of appeal. Brown's contract will send a message to older players around the league: if you want one last payday, Jokic can get it for you.
Don't expect Denver to take it too far. Remember, the Nuggets prioritize their culture more than most teams, so don't be surprised to see them roster Ish Smith and DeAndre Jordan again purely for the vibes. But the Nuggets will appeal to players in their late-20's and early-30's that want to actively compete for titles. If they can swing a reunion with Mason Plumlee for the minimum, they'll probably do it. Wes Matthews has team-hopped in search of a ring before, and he's still got some defensive juice left in him. Backup center will be a priority here, but the Nuggets will keep an open mind. Ultimately, any eighth- or ninth-man they could actually reliably play in the regular season would be more than welcome.