Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 8
By Jack Thomason--
(CBS) Sometimes these sleepers and daily fantasy value plays hit and sometimes they don't, but I have to take a moment to recognize last week's column.
I nailed the No. 1 (Kirk Cousins) and No. 8 (Ryan Fitzpatrick) quarterbacks, the No. 5 (Darren McFadden) running back, the No. 6 (Stefon Diggs) and No. 16 (Rishard Matthews) receivers and the No. 1 (Jordan Reed) and No. 4 (Ladarius Green) tight ends.
If that isn't the definition of a successful week, I don't know what is. OK, sorry. Enough gloating. I had to share that out of sheer excitement,
Unfortunately, I didn't listen to my own recommendations and played none of these guys in daily fantasy outside Ladarius Green. Let's see if I can put my money where my mouth is and repeat it.
Let's take a look at this week's sleepers/value plays for both season-long and daily fantasy leagues.
Quarterback
Jay Cutler, Bears (vs. Vikings) -- Over his last three games Cutler has thrown five touchdowns, two interceptions and averaged 295 yards passing. He's coming off of the bye week, has a healthy complement of weapons with Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte all back in the mix and gets a Vikings team, at home, that ranks 28th in pass DVOA. Cutler can be a great way to alleviate salary constraints, given his reasonable price tags of $5200 and $7300 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets (at Raiders) -- The Raiders are giving up the 10th-most points (17.7) to opposing quarterbacks, and Fitzpatrick ranks ninth in points per game (17.3). One of the added benefits to his game is his legs. While one may not think Fitzpatrick runs a lot, he's ninth among quarterbacks with 112 yards on the ground. That gives him a higher floor. Meanwhile, he's averaging 245 yards through the air and 1.8 touchdowns per game. He's extremely undervalued right now and his price makes him a steal ($5200 on DK; $7400 on FD). The Raiders are a nice matchup for Fitzpatrick, as they rank 17th in pass DVOA.
Running back
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (vs. Colts) -- In two of his last three games, Stewart has rushed for more than five yards per carry, and in the one he didn't, he scored two touchdowns. His past two opponents (Eagles and Seahawks) have ranked fifth and eighth in rush DVOA and still Stewart has piled up fantasy stats. Now come the lowly Indianapolis Colts, who travel to Carolina after getting demolished by the Saints rushing attack to a tune of 5.1 yards per carry, 183 yards and three touchdowns. Stewart should have a field day, and the price is right at $4100 (DK) and $6600 (FD) to fire him up as your RB2.
Orleans Darkwa, Giants (at Saints) -- This one isn't for the faint of heart. I'm going out on a limb here, because Darkwa looked like the best power runner the Giants had last Sunday, and the matchup is ripe for the taking. New Orleans ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA, and Darkwa is expected to see more carries after Sunday's performance of eight carries, 48 yards and an impressive touchdown. This has the chance to backfire dramatically, given the Giants may deploy a four-man committee, but I'm banking on the fact that Darkwa -- who saw the second-most snaps (14) to Shane Vereen (23) last week -- will have an expanded role against a lighter Colts defensive front. He may be worth a shot in the Darkwa (see what I did there?) at $3600 (DK) and $5100 (FD).
Receiver
Danny Amendola, Patriots (vs. Dolphins) -- Amendola has back-to-back weeks with nine targets and has parlayed those into 15 receptions, 191 yards and a touchdown. Now, some of this might be due to Dion Lewis missing one game and being limited in the other, but Amendola has earned Tom Brady's trust moving forward with some spectacular grabs and timely plays. While the Dolphins rank 13th in DVOA pass defense, the Patriots are coming off burning up the second-ranked DVOA pass defense (Jets). At prices of $5800 on FanDuel and $3600 on DraftKings, Amendola is worth your WR3/flex spot. Even more so on DraftKings, because of full PPR scoring.
Michael Floyd, Cardinals (at Browns) -- The Browns pass defense ranks 15th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers, eighth to No. 2 receivers and 30th against other receivers. Tell me that doesn't have "big game for Mike Floyd" written all over it. At cheap prices of $3500 on DK and $4900 on FD, he may be the best value of all receivers this week. Add his salary cap relief pricing to his back-to-back games with touchdowns and his increased role in the offense, and you have a recipe for success.
Tight end
Ben Watson, Saints (vs. Giants) -- Watson has tallied 17 targets and converted 14 of them for 186 yards in the past two weeks, with a trip to pay dirt too. He now gets the Giants, who have allowed the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends. While the Saints have dramatically improved their run game, Watson and this pass offense is still ranked third in the NFL, airing it out for more than 297 yards per game. If you need help at the tight end position or are looking for decent value in DFS, Watson can be your friend. ($3500 on DK; $5400 on FD)
Ladarius Green, Chargers (at Ravens) -- The latest news around Antonio Gates is he may end up missing multiple games with a sprained MCL. If that's the case, you'll want to fire up Green at low prices of $3000 on DraftKings and $ 5300 on FanDuel. The Chargers lead the NFL in passing yards per game (343.6), and the Ravens rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, so the stats line up quite well in this one for Green, who's also coming off back-to-back games with a touchdown and added two two-point conversions this past week.
Others considered: Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Stafford, Antonio Andrews, Charcandrick West, Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, Heath Miller and Eric Ebron.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77and feel free to ask fantasy questions.