Thomason: Sleepers & Daily Fantasy Value Plays For Week 1
By Jack Thomason--
(CBS) I can't believe we are finally here. Kickoff of the 2015 NFL season is only hours away. This is better than Christmas as an 8-year-old, for crying out loud. I'm beyond pumped for another great year, and what better way to kick it off with some seasonal sleepers and daily fantasy value plays for Week 1?
I want to give you a quick explanation about my thought process on this article, because I will be bridging season-long leagues and daily fantasy. Oftentimes, sleepers in season long leagues will correlate with value plays in daily fantasy. The idea here is to give you two players at each position who can be used in seasonal leagues. At the same time, I will provide you with their price points on either DraftKings, FanDuel or both, depending on where I see them being a value that week in daily fantasy leagues.
Enjoy as always, and look for me next Tuesday with my top 10 waiver adds for Week 2. May you all go 1-0!
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor, Bills (vs. Colts) -- Taylor is minimum price in both DraftKings and FanDuel ($5000). Due to his rushing ability, he has a higher floor than your typical quarterback, and it also gives him a monster upside. You're looking for three to five times a player's salary, divided by 1,000 (example: 5000/1000 = 5x3 = 15) in points depending on your game selection. I think Taylor's floor, with 40-50 yards rushing, is near that three times rate of return. The Colts are also thin on the defensive line and missing their best run defender in Arthur Jones.
Sam Bradford, Eagles (at Falcons) -- This game boasts the highest Vegas over/under for the week, with a point total of 55. The Eagles are three-point favorites and are going to have plenty of opportunities to score, given their fast-paced offense running around 70 plays per game and the Falcons' porous defense. The Eagles have been a top-five scoring offense the last two years under Chip Kelly. Whether it was Nick Foles in 2013 or the combo of Foles and Mark Sanchez in 2014, the quarterback position for the Eagles is a lock for QB1 numbers. Bradford's 14th-ranked QB price on DraftKings ($6900) and 17th-ranked price on FanDuel ($7500) makes him a nice value.
Running back
Benny Cunningham, Rams (vs. Seahawks) -- This choice is about volume. Tre Mason looks to be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury, and Todd Gurley isn't expected to play for the first three to four weeks of the season. We know the Seahawks are as stingy as a defense that's out there, but with Earl Thomas less than 100 percent and Kam Chancellor holding out, their defense isn't as tenacious as always. Still, this is a deep sleeper based upon volume, PPR scoring and the possibility that you're limited with running back options due to a zero-running back draft strategy. The only place I would consider Cunningham, for daily fantasy, is DraftKings, due to his $3000 price tag and full PPR scoring. I expect him to catch several dump-offs as Nick Foles is running for his life.
Danny Woodhead, Chargers (vs. Lions) -- The last season Danny Woodhead was full healthy, he was the RB12 in PPR formats. That was also the year Ryan Mathews rushed for more than 1,200 yards too. San Diego utilizes its committee of running backs as needed, and this game shapes up to be more Woodhead than Melvin Gordon. Detroit lost Ndamukong Suh, but let's not forget the Lions acquired Haloti Ngata.. This is still a stout defensive front seven that last year ranked first in rushing yards per game (69.3), total rushing yards (1,109) and yards per attempt (3.2). The one place they did struggle was receptions and receiving yards to running backs.
Receivers
John Brown, Cardinals (vs. Saints) -- Brown has been a trendy sleeper pick throughout the offseason, and his average draft position continued to creep up as the season closed in. I like Brown's price ($4500) on DraftKings, due to the PPR format, and he has a great matchup against the Saints. They finished last as the 31st-ranked defense, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, and 27th in pass defense. Given Michael Floyd's finger injury, as well as Brown adding 10 pounds of muscle this offseason and shacking up with his quarterback during the offseason, we should have ourselves a recipe for fantasy success.
Rueben Randle, Giants (at Cowboys) -- Green Bay's Davante Adams is a no-brainer play at his price in both DraftKings ($4400) and FanDuel ($5500), so I wanted to come up with someone more obscure. Yes, Randle has frustrated on so many occasions, but no team attempted more passes through the final nine games of 2014 than the Giants. Randle finished off last year strong, going over six catches and 110 yards in three of his last six games while compiling 12 receptions, 190 yards and a score in the final two games. He's better priced on DraftKings at $5000 but reasonably priced as your WR3 in FanDuel at $5300, especially since this is Vegas's third-highest over/under (51.5) game of the week and the Giants are six-point underdogs. They should be throwing plenty, and did I mention Victor Cruz is unlikely to play?
Tight end
Jordan Reed, Redskins (vs. Dolphins) -- The tight end is a large part of Washington's offense, and Reed seems to be forgotten by many fantasy owners. He saw plenty of targets last year when healthy, and he's arguably a top-five athletic talent at his position. The only thing that has held him back to this point has been health, but he's 100 percent as of today. Kirk Cousins is a turnover machine, and the Redskins' pass defense can't stop anyone, so look for Washington to be trailing and Reed to see plenty of opportunity. He's priced right on both sites at $3300 (DraftKings) and $5000 (FanDuel).
Richard Rodgers, Packers (at Bears) -- This one is about as simple as it gets. First, the Jordy Nelson injury is huge and Davante Adams isn't going to soak up every last target left behind. Second (credit goes to Rich Hribar from The Fake Football for these statistics), the Packers ran the most plays per game in the red zone last year with 11.9, while the Bears allowed the most plays per game in the red zone last year with 12. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers will be looking for a new big-bodied, red-zone target now that his binky is out for the year. This makes Richard Rodgers a nice value on DraftKings with a $2500 tag if you like to fade the tight end position and similarly on FanDuel at $4900.
Jack Thomason is 670 The Score's fantasy football expert and co-host of "Chicago's Fantasy Football Today," which can be heard every Sunday during football season from 8-9 a.m. CT on WSCR-670 and 670thescore.com/listen. Follow him on Twitter @jthomason77 and feel free to ask fantasy questions.