Statistical Model Places Bears' Playoff Odds At 8%
(CBS) The 2014 season certainly isn't going well for the Bears as they've stumbled to 3-5 and have questions all over the field, and it's reflected in the model of noted statistician Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.
After Sunday's loss at New England, Chicago now has an 8 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight. The Bears trail the Lions by three games in the NFC North, and their chances of winning the division are placed at 4 percent. If you're wondering, all those numbers add up to a less than 1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Until mathematically eliminated, no big dreams are over. But in a strong NFC, it's appearing more and more like that the Bears will have to go 7-1 over the second half of the season to have a shot at the playoffs, because getting to 10 wins seems close to a must right now. Some have even speculated that a 10-win NFC team could get left home for the playoffs.
As it sits, the 5-2 Eagles and the 5-3 Packers would be the two NFC wild-card teams, so the Bears are currently two games out of such a berth.
The FiveThirtyEight model projects the Cardinals (81 percent), Lions (77 percent), Cowboys (75 percent), Eagles (60 percent), Packers (60 percent) and Seahawks (59 percent) as having the top playoff odds in the NFC. Obviously, someone has to emerge as the NFC South winner, so not all those teams can make the postseason.
Overall, the Broncos (21 percent) and Patriots (11 percent) are projected to have the best chances at winning the Super Bowl.